Epidemiologists believe the next couple of days will be crucial in deciding whether Cyprus is able to contain the virus which is spreading more rapidly.
In comments to state TV CyBC 1, Dr George Nicolopoulos, professor of epidemiology and a government advisor said Cyprus is on the edge, especially with Limassol as the new hotspot.
Nicolopoulos said the virus reproduction rate – a key measure of how fast it’s growing – is well above “one” which will, in turn, lead to more hospital admissions.
He said Tuesday’s 152 cases, the second-highest recorded after Saturday’s 202, is partly attributed to large labs not performing tests during the weekend.
Nevertheless, the increase is worrying, and the following 2-3 days will be crucial for the course of the virus.
“Undoubtedly the virus is now widespread in the community, and we will be seeing high numbers of cases in the following days.
What we don’t want to see is the numbers increasing, as this would mean more people needing to be admitted to hospitals putting a strain on the health system.”
He said more hospital admissions is indicative of the number of people expected to develop severe symptoms and will need to be treated at an ICU.
“At the moment, the index seems to be indicating that the situation is still manageable.”
Despite the high number of cases, health authorities have yet to record a sharp increase in admissions to hospitals as the majority of people contracting COVID-19 are younger.
“On the one hand, this is good as younger individuals have less chance of needing hospitalisation. On the other, however, this is an indication that the virus is widespread among younger people who apparently have not taken in the warnings sent out by authorities,” said Nicolopoulos.
The advisory committee to the government on the coronavirus crisis will be issuing its latest 14-day epidemiological report on Thursday, which will include the reproduction rate R(t).
“We currently believe the rate to be well above ‘one’, and a bit higher than 1.5.”
The R(t) at the beginning of the outbreak in early March was 3, dropping to under one the first months of the summer, jumping to 2 in August.
The transmission rate shows how many people are infected on average from someone with COVID, containment is achieved if it’s below one.
