World shipping outlook remains negative as earnings forecasts to fall 16-18%, says Moody’s

The outlook for the global shipping sector for the coming 12 to 18 months remains negative, Moody’s Investors Service said in a new report, with the outlook remaining negative since the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.

The key drivers of the negative outlook are a combination of expectations that the global economy will shrink in 2020 and the road to recovery will be long and bumpy, the rating agency said.

“We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020, nearly doubling from our previous projection of a drop of around 6%-10%,” said Maria Maslovsky, Vice President – Senior Analyst at Moody’s.

The outlook for the dry bulk and container shipping segments remains negative with supply likely to exceed demand significantly. However, the outlook for the tanker segment is stable helped by a temporary dislocation in the oil market with high demand for floating storage pushing up tanker rates.