By Kelvin Wong
The “Magnificent 7” mega-cap stocks in the US market continue to underperform since the start of the year, with the worst performer being Microsoft, with a double-digit year-to-date loss of 19.6% as of Tuesday, February 24, underperforming significantly against the Nasdaq 100 (-1.1%) and S&P 500 (+0.7%).
New artificial intelligence (AI) tools from Google and Anthropic raised concerns that the competitive edge of SaaS (Software as a Service) firms could be eroding.
NVIDIA, the AI juggernaut that managed to punch above the rest of the “Magnificent 7” with a YTD gain of 3.4%, will report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday after the US session closes. Its results and guidance will likely serve as a bellwether for global AI demand.
Since November 20, 2025, the price actions of Nvidia have been trading in a three-month sideways range configuration, holding above its key 200-day moving average.
Two positive technical developments have emerged.
Firstly, Nvidia’s volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has shaped a “higher low” and pierced above its zero line on February 24, ahead of the earnings results release. These observations suggest the prior 5-month underperformance of NVIDIA against the S&P 500 from September 4 last year to February 20, 2026.
Secondly, the daily MACD trend indicator of Nvidia has shaped a bullish crossover above its centreline, which highlights the possibility of a trend change from sideways to an uptrend phase.
Watch the 169.55 key medium-term pivotal support (also close to the 200-day moving average) on Nvidia, and a clearance above the 195.95 intermediate range resistance may trigger the start of a potential medium-term uptrend phase for a retest on its current all-time high of 212.19 seen on October 29, 2025. The next medium-term resistances stand at 234.10 and 247.15.
On the other hand, a break and a daily close below 169.55 invalidates the bullish scenario to expose the next medium-term supports at 153.00 and 135.35/129.90.
Kelvin Wong is market analyst at OANDA
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