Turkey’s signature of the protocol that would extend the EU-Turkey customs union to all new member states (including Cyprus) was one of the first victims of the disastrous EU summit that ended in the early hours of Saturday.
Only a week ago, EU officials and analysts were convinced that Turkey would sign the protocol, and thereby avoid reprimands in the EU Council’s conclusions.
However, as anticipated by the Financial Mirror in our website article last week, a combination of events meant that the much-awaited signature never happened.
Turkey’s first incentive to sign was removed when the EU Council took any mention of Turkey and other candidate countries off its conclusions. No likely reprimand: no incentive to sign.
Its second incentive to sign collapsed when talks broke down in Brussels between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots on how to implement the ‘direct trade regulation’ that would lift restrictions on Turkish Cypriot trade. Turkey is trying to tie the signature of the protocol to a deal on this thorny issue.
It was the breakdown of talks on Turkish Cypriot trade that led us to ask last week whether the signature of the Protocol would be delayed.
Signing the Protocol is the last remaining precondition for Turkey to start accession negotiations on October 3.
EU leaders approved the text of the Protocol last week. Turkey has been dragging its feet over the signature, however. First, because it fears that the signature will imply de facto recognition of Cyprus, and a strong of court cases, and second, because the earlier Turkey signs, the earlier it will come under pressure actually to implement it.
The European Commission and all member states except for Cyprus and Greece is of the view that signature of the Protocol is enough to fulfil the conditions for accession negotiations. However, the Commission is likely to be tougher after October 3 when assessing whether the Protocol has been implemented.
Strictly speaking, since the customs union does not cover sevices, it could be argued that it does not cover shipping, which means that Turkey may not have to allow Cpyrus-flagged ships to dock at Turkish ports.
However, Commission officials have made it clear that any restrictions on free movement of goods (such as refusal of ships) would constitute a breach of the customs union and it may therefore end up taking Turkey to court.
Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is under intense pressure from the increasingly vocal nationalist elements in Turkey not to sign.
In another sign of delay over the weekend, Erdogan said that the signature would happen after a debate in parliament.
However, much will depend on a deal over Turkish Cypriot trade.
“For Turkey to open its ports and airports, the [Turkish Cypriot] isolation should first be lifted. If not, no one should expect investment from Turkey,” Turkish Daily News quoted Erdogan as saying.
Trade talks seem stuck in the mire, however. When talks on direct trade collapsed last week, both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots accused each other of intransigence.
Fiona Mullen
