COP30 is underway at Belem in Brazil, but with low expectations. Not only has the US, under President Trump, pulled out of the Paris Agreement – starting January – but his administration is actively undermining the conference.
Also, global developments during the past year to a certain extent have taken some of the steam out of energy transition. There is a growing realisation that even though energy transition is progressing, it is doing so at a lower rate than originally envisaged, making it less and less likely that it will achieve its 2050 goals.
Muted global business turnout at COP30 reflects the subdued mood. In business there is now greater discussion of energy security and affordability, not sustainability alone. Energy security is becoming top of the list.
Global energy demand is still growing at 2% a year, faster than the 1.4% average rate over the last ten years, requiring all energy forms – including fossil fuels – to carry on growing to provide the energy the world needs.
Since the commitment two years ago at COP28 to shift away from fossil fuels by 2050, global efforts have been ‘watered-down,’ driven by energy security concerns.
One change already becoming evident, is that COP30 is expected to focus more on converting the Paris Agreement’s commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, in effect abandoning the 1.5°C goal.
The new National Energy and Climate plans to 2035 are characterised by slipping climate targets.
Announced goals for 2035 lack ambition, suggesting too many governments are kicking the can down the road. It is increasingly acknowledged that the world is in an “energy addition” mode and will not achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
There is an increasing shift to prioritising human welfare in climate debates. The world is turning to ‘energy pragmatism.’ Talk of emissions reductions at any cost is out, and political and economic realism is in.
The next phase of the energy transition will be driven by resilience. Without resilience, the energy transition will fail.
Political willingness eroded
COP30 could be the toughest climate gathering yet, with energy transition slowing down as political willingness to tackle global warming is steadily eroded by energy security and affordability concerns, right-wing politics and attacks by the US.
According to Prof Dieter Helm, “believers in cheaper power should ask why the costs and prices are so high. It is not hard to find out. The shift to renewables requires twice the capacity of generation and twice the grid capacity to produce the same output, in addition to a host of batteries, and pumped storage”.
The world remains in an energy addition mode, rather than a clear transition. Fossil fuel use continues to climb, despite the growth of renewables.
Electrification plan remains unplugged
Europe’s electrification has been stuck stubbornly at about 22-23% of final energy use for more than five years, making it almost impossible to meet the end-2030 higher targets.
Energy costs are still between two to five times higher in Europe than in the US or China, making them unaffordable.
Germany used to produce 31% of its electricity from nuclear power back in 1997. Now its electricity rates are three times higher than the US, with factories closing and moving to other countries
GSI back on track?
For the first time, the Israeli government is openly proposing that the Cyprus-Israel segment of the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) be built before the Crete-Cyprus segment. This adds a new dimension to the electrical grid link project.
Meanwhile, Greece and Cyprus agreed to proceed with the immediate updating of the economic and technical parameters for GSI so that it can potentially be strengthened with the entry of new major investors.
The EU Energy Commissioner made it clear that the GSI is of strategic importance and that the Commission fully supports it. He also said Turkey’s threats are futile and cannot stop a project of European Interest.
The EU has added the Azerbaijan and Georgia’s Black Sea Green Energy Corridor to its TYNDP 2026 plan. The 4GW subsea cable would link the Caspian to Europe, exporting renewables from the South Caucasus to Romania and beyond.
Finally, Turkey has announced that its first nuclear plant at Akkuyu, built by Rosatom, will begin power generation in 2026.
Dr Charles Ellinas, Councilor, Atlantic Council
