Is the era of net zero pledges coming to an end? The debate around net zero is intensifying, with political parties and investors questioning its economic viability and impact.
In Washington, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright ended what he calls ‘costly’ pursuit of net zero future in a pivot toward Donals Trump’s energy dominance goal. He claims that net zero policies raise energy costs for Americans, threaten grid reliability, and undermine energy and national security.
Europe’s summers are getting less windy due to global warming, cutting wind power output and straining grids. Germany has faced months of low wind, spiking electricity prices and fossil fuel use. This is a major challenge for renewable reliability.
A German security report warns that climate change threatens EU’s survival. It shows that climate change’s destabilising effects will drive up migration and food prices, threatening economic and political upheaval in Europe.
A growing climate disconnect is developing, driven by increasing energy costs and their impact on people’s lives. Political and social support for decarbonisation has started to fray. They are demanding more emphasis on energy access and affordability.
European wind power champion Orsted slashed its investment plan to 2030 by 25% in the latest sign of trouble inside the renewables industry.
In another about turn on green commitments, Airbus has pushed back plans to fly a hydrogen plane by 2035. This is a setback for the aviation industry’s hopes to achieve net zero.
The ΙΕΑ said there is a pressing need to modernise Europe’s and the world’s electricity grids. They could be a bottleneck in reaching energy goals.
Upgrading Europe’s electricity grid is about more than just money. Interconnection is vital for European energy security, decarbonisation and cost reduction.
Without it, electricity costs will not come under control.
US and European energy groups are at risk from a uranium supply crunch. The metal used to power reactors faces shortages as demand for nuclear power rises.
German’s election frontrunners have been pushing for nuclear comeback. With energy costs soaring, the conservatives are expected to reopen the debate.
Japan is investing $1.5 bln on ultra-thin solar cells in a challenge to China.
Global coal demand hit a record high in 2024, defying forecasts of a plateau. Emerging Asian economies, led by China and India, are driving coal growth to meet surging electricity demand.
According to Shell’s 2025 Energy Security Scenarios, primary energy demand in 2050 could be nearly 25% higher than in 2024 due to rising populations and prosperity. Oil demand is likely to grow by 3-5 mln b/d into the early 2030s and gas by 500 bcm by 2040.
A future energy scenario considered by Shell sees innovation brought by artificial intelligence limiting global temperature rises to around 2°C by 2100.
Finally, 95% of countries have missed the UN February deadline to submit their 2035 climate pledges
Dr Charles Ellinas is Councilor at the Atlantic Council
X: @CharlesEllinas
