COVID19: Study predicts Cyprus outbreak ends 24 May

A Singapore university study predicts the lifecycle of the coronavirus pandemic in Cyprus will end on 24 May, and it will vanish from the planet in time for Christmas.

According to the findings of a study carried out by students of the Data Innovation Club, at the Singapore University of Technology and Design, the pandemic peaked in Cyprus on April 5.

Cyprus had reported its maximum on 1 April when 58 new COVID-19 cases were identified.

The report ascertains that the virus should have left the community by a rate of 97% on 29 April.

The university predicts that by 8 May Cyprus will be 99% virus-free and 100% on 24 May.

And it should clear up over the summer in the majority of countries while the study boldly predicts the pandemic will disappear from the planet by December 9, 2020.

The study took into consideration the lifecycle of past pandemics and the factors that affect it as well as geographical particularities for each country.

“Such a lifecycle is the result of the adaptive and countering behaviours of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities) as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem,” said the report.

The study notes that the pandemic lifecycle varies by countries, and different countries might be in different phases at a specific point in time.

The university’s scientists tried to predict the end of the pandemic for each country but note that due to the developing nature of the virus and potential variations in political approaches by some governments, the curve, turning point and end dates differ.

For example, what might be considered as disturbing news for Cyprus tourism, is its biggest market the UK will not see the virus clearing up until 14 August.

The report was published on 28 April with authors committing to reevaluating data and updating the study. (https://www.persi.or.id/images/2020/data/covid19_prediction_paper.pdf)