Turkish Cypriot leader will struggle to be re-elected

Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci may not make the run-off in April elections in the breakaway north of the island with hardliners on the Cyprus problem likely to triumph, according to opinion polls.

A recent opinion poll conducted by Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris Postasi shows Akinci will not make it through to the second round in 26 April elections.

He is expected to lose out to Ersin Tatar, the head of the ruling coalition and of the right-wing National Unity Party (UBP), and the leader of the left-wing Turkish Republican Party (CTP) Tufan Erhurman.

According to Kibris Postasi, Tatar leads the polls with 32%, followed by Erhurman with 23%, Akinci is a lowly third with 18% followed by the People’s Party (HP) and the ruling coalition’s second in command Kudret Ozersay with 10%.

Some 5,000 participated in the online survey which was carried out between 15-21 January.

Answering a question regarding their main criteria for deciding to cast their vote for a specific candidate, 35.2% said the deciding factor was the candidate’s stand on the Cyprus problem.

Some 23.95% said that their party’s position was their number one criteria.

And 52.78% of people asked do not believe the Cyprus problem will be solved in 2020.

Asked by the Turkish Cypriot newspaper, which candidate they would definitely not be voting for, 25% of participants cast a negative vote for Mustafa Akinci.

Some 18% gave the thumbs down to Tatar, who was followed by the leader of the far-right Rebirth Party Erhan Arikli (YDP) with 15%, Erhurman was fourth with 9%.

Tatar was projected to win the first round with 34.2% in a poll conducted by Turkish company Gezici.

However, another survey carried out by Turkish Cypriot daily Detay had Akinci leading the polls with 36.7%.

Movement on stalled UN-backed Cyprus reunification talks is only likely to gain momentum once Turkish Cypriot elections are over.