Financial analysts see a roughly one in three chance of Greece restructuring its debt sometime in the next five years, and an approximately one in ten chance of it leaving the euro zone, a Reuters poll showed.
The poll of 54 economists, who mostly responded before Standard and Poor's downgraded Greek debt to junk status on Tuesday, gave a median 10 percent chance of a debt restructuring in the next three months.
Greece and the European Commission, conducting talks on an international bailout of Athens, have insisted their plans will not include a restructuring, which would mean debt holders losing some of their principal or accepting delayed payments.
But private economists believe Greece's 300 billion euro debt mountain is so crushing, and its recession so deep, that the probability of a restructuring will rise in coming years.
They see a median 20 percent chance over the next 12 months and 30 percent within five years.
At the same time, the economists estimate a much smaller chance of a sovereign debt default, in which Greece would simply stop making payments on its debt without a new schedule of payments, either unilateral or agreed with creditors.
The chance of a default is put at 5 percent in the next three months and 15 percent within five years. The five-year probability is smaller than the 23 percent which economists estimated in a poll last week, before Greece requested an international bailout.
"Greece faces a long and painful road, but will desperately want to avoid default for now — it is far from a costless option. Ultimately, its euro area colleagues may need to provide further fiscal support," said Colin Ellis at Daiwa Capital Markets.
BAILOUT
Euro zone governments and the International Monetary Fund have said they will make available, subject to conditions, a bailout package for Greece which includes up to 45 billion euros of emergency three-year loans in the first year.
More money may be provided in subsequent years, and the poll showed expectations for the total package to become much larger.
Thirty-seven of the 54 economists said the package would be increased to between 45 billion and 90 billion euros, while 16 said more than 90 billion euros would be needed. Only one said 45 billion euros would be sufficient.
Economists estimated a small but not insignificant chance of 9 percent that the economic pressures of the euro zone's monetary straightjacket would force Greece to leave the zone within the next five years.
"I believe that in an effort to preserve the euro zone, Greece has to be the buffer — if the powerful members of the euro zone force it out, then the market speculators will simply eye up the next target of Portugal," said Stephen Pope at Cantor Fitzgerald.
