World stocks will rely next week on another flood of major corporate earnings results and crucial U.S. growth data to surprise on the upside in order to sustain a rally which has pushed the benchmark index to nine-month peaks.
The MSCI world equity index has risen more than 6 percent this week to hit its highest since mid-October. Since January, the index has risen more than 14 percent, recouping some of the 43.5 percent decline suffered last year.
The rally has largely to do with some forecast-beating earnings reports from the both sides of the Atlantic. While results are not unanimously spectacular, 117 out of 154 firms on the S&P 500 — or 76 percent — have beaten forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Next week's releases include Honeywell, Verizon, Time Warner , Exxon Mobil, Motorola, Deutsche Bank, BP and Royal Dutch Shell .
U.S. growth data on Friday is expected to show the world's biggest economy shrank less in the second quarter, with GDP coming in at -1.6 percent compared with -5.5 percent in the first three months.
"Since we are at the beginning of a cyclical recovery, the outperformance of equities over bonds has only just begun," said Phlipp Bartschi, chief strategist at Swiss asset manager Sarasin.
"The market would need to see good results to confirm the latest move. The market might need to consolidate a bit before breaking higher."
Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management expects strong overseas demand and a weaker dollar would allow U.S. firms to post revenue growth of 4-6 percent from the previous quarter and a 10 percent rise in operating earnings.
"Broadly speaking, U.S. company profits, as a share of GDP, should continue to remain above the long term average on the back of higher contributions from overseas and very stiff cost control in recent quarters," Merrill's portfolio strategist Bill O'Neill said in a note to clients.
"There is however little scope for disappointment at this juncture."
According to Thomson Reuters data, firms on the S&P 500 index are expected to see their earnings per share contract by 30.8 percent in the second quarter. This forecast was upgraded from April, when the expected contraction rate was at 31.1 percent.
In the third quarter the rate is expected to improve further to 21.1 percent before swinging back to growth in the final three months of 2009. It is this expected year-end leap back to positive territory which is encouraging many fund managers to keep accumulating equity at these levels.
IMPROVING CAPITAL RAISING
Given huge liquidity injection and easier monetary policy by central banks, firms are seeing improved conditions for capital raising in equity and bond markets.
According to UBS, firms raised a total of $80 billion through equity issuance and in the form of common stocks rather than preferreds. In May alone they raised more than $60 billion — the largest single-month figure over the past few years.
During these two months only less than $1 billion were in the form of initial public offerings, while the vast majority was for secondary offerings — a sign UBS said that most investors wish to stick with existing companies with strong chances of returning to profitability.
In 2008, only $7.2 billion were raised through IPOs, and so far this year the figure is only $1.7 billion.
"Better conditions and greater investor confidence is a factor in the jump, but if corporates believe the window of opportunity may shut again, Q2 proved to be the best time to obtain funds," Geoffrey Yu, strategist at the Swiss firm, said in a note to clients.
"The still-shut IPO market is a clear sign that investor appetite has not normalised."
