A committee of Greek MPs failed to agree on Wednesday on whether a former minister should stand trial in a bribery scandal, leaving parliament to resolve the case in a vote that could trigger an early election.
Parliament, where the conservative government clings to a one-seat majority, is expected to vote next week on the affair, which has rocked Greece for months as it struggles with social unrest and an economic crisis.
Any defections could force Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis to call a snap election — more than two years early — to coincide with a June 7 ballot for the European Parliament.
Aristotle Pavlides, a deputy from the ruling New Democracy party and former minister for the Aegean, denies any wrongdoing in the case. It was brought to light by a shipowner who testified that a Pavlides aide demanded bribes to grant a contract to run subsidised Aegean island ferry routes.
"If parliament rules (Pavlides) should appear before a special court, it is possible elections will be held," New Democracy secretary general Yiannis Tragakis told To Vima newspaper this week.
During five years in power, the government has been shaken by scandals ranging from controversial land swaps between the state and a wealthy monastery to suspect government bond sales to state-run pension funds. It now trails socialist opposition PASOK by up to 7 percentage points in opinion polls.
MIXED FINDINGS
A 13-member parliamentary committee investigating Pavlides issued an inconclusive report on Wednesday. New Democracy deputies said there was no evidence to justify lifting his immunity. All four opposition parties said he should be tried.
The decision is now up to the 300-seat parliament, where the ruling New Democracy has 151 deputies.
The government would not lose its majority immediately if Pavlides is sent to court but could decide to call snap elections to avoid further tarnishing its image by relying on a deputy on trial to govern.
"I think that next week we will know if we will have double elections on June 7 or not," said Theodoros Livanios, from Opinion polling agency. "There are a number of New Democracy MPs very keen to vote against Mr Pavlides."
The test to the government comes at it has embarked on unpopular tax and wage measures to cope with the economic crisis.
It is under European Union pressure to cut its deficits and bring under control its huge national debt, which at 98 percent of GDP is the second largest in euro zone after Italy's. Growth, once booming, could turn negative this year.
In December Greece saw its worst riots in decades. Although prompted by the police shooting of a teenager, they were fuelled by discontent with a slowing economy and high youth unemployment.
Pollsters say neither the government nor the public want snap polls in the middle of an economic crisis. Pressure has been intense on Pavlides to resign his seat, be replaced and spare the government the dilemma.
"To have Pavlides resign, that's the obvious and number one objective," said Anthony Livanios of Alpha Metrics pollsters.
Pavlides has resisted so far, saying he is determined to clear his name. He stood before parliament earlier this month, waving his finger at fellow deputies and saying: "No, no, no."
