GDP growth estimated at 3.8% in 2006

Earlier years show higher growth

 

The Statistical Service CYSTAT produced its first estimate for real GDP growth on Tuesday, saying that it expected real GDP growth to reach 3.8% in 2006. This is only very slightly lower than the (upwardly revised) 3.9% growth rate in 2005.

The main drivers according to the estimates are construction (up 5.1%), wholesale and retail trade (up 6.0%) and financial intermediation (up 8.9%).

At the same time, CYSTAT produced revised GDP figures for earlier years. National accounts are revised as new figures come in and as the authorities hone their methodology to meet EU requirements.

GDP growth in 2005 was revised up to 3.9% from 3.8% previously, while GDP growth in 2004 was revised up to 4.1% from 3.9% previously.

And if you remember 2002-03 as tough years, then the revisions have made them just that little bit tougher: growth in 2002 was revised down to 2.0% from 2.1%, while growth in 2003 was revised down to 1.8% from 1.9%.

As has been pointed out by the Financial Mirror before, when you are used to growth rates of close to 4%, then 2% feels like a nasty recession.

Fiona Mullen