World Health Organization Director General lee Jong-Wook said on Monday that human transmission of the deadly strain of bird flu (H5N1 avian flu) would certainly occur but he could not predict when.
Although bird flu has not yet shown signs of human to human transmission, scientists are expecting the flu to mutate soon enough to be able to leap from one human to another.
The 63 human deaths from bird flu recorded to date were caused by direct contact with infected birds. In total over 120 people have been infected.
Jong-Wook was speaking at a global meeting in Geneva with the aim of building consensus on a common approach to avian influenza and human pandemic influenza.
The three-day meeting, jointly organized by the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO), brings together 600 delegates from more than 100 countries. They include experts on animal health, human health, the environment and economics.
Jonk-Wook said that according to WHO estimates, the cost of bird flue has already reached USD 10 bln since the end of 2003.
The H5N1 avian influenza virus is already firmly established among animals in Asia and has begun to extend its reach into Europe.
The disease in animals caused by the H5N1 influenza virus has resulted in the culling of at least 150 million birds in the last two years. H5N1 remains for the moment an animal disease, but as warned yesterday, the H5N1 is a virus that has the potential to ignite a human influenza pandemic.
While no one can predict the timing or severity of the next influenza pandemic, governments around the world are taking the threat seriously. A series of international meetings held over the last ten weeks have culminated in the Geneva meeting.
“This virus is very treacherous,” says Dr Margaret Chan, Representative of the WHO Director-General for Pandemic Influenza. “While we cannot predict when or if the H5N1 virus might spark a pandemic, we cannot ignore the warning signs.” Because influenza pandemics have typically caused enormous social and economic disruption, WHO is advising its member states to develop national strategies to cope with such a public health emergency, as well as coordinating with international partners to develop a comprehensive response.
The Geneva meeting will first consider how to contain the H5N1 virus in birds. “There is still a window of opportunity for substantially reducing the risk of a human pandemic evolving from H5N1 by controlling the virus at its source, in animals,” says Joseph Domenech, FAO Chief Veterinary Officer.
“For the first time in human history, we have a chance to prepare ourselves for a pandemic before it arrives,” says Dr Chan. “It is incumbent upon the global community to act now.”
