The working population is set to fall sharply both in the EU as a whole and in Cyprus in particular over the next few decades, thus putting greater pressure on tax and welfare systems.
According to the most recent forecasts by Eurostat, the share of the EU25 population of working age (15-64) in the total population is expected to decrease sharply in the EU25, from 67.2% in 2004 to 56.7% in 2050. This means a fall of 52 million inhabitants of working age.
At the same time the old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise from 24.5% to 52.8% in the same period.
In Cyprus, the share of the 15-64 year-olds is expected to fall from 68.1% of the total in 2004 to 60.5% of the total in 2050, while the old-age dependency ratio is exected to rise from 17.5% to 43.2% in the same period.
For the EU as a whole, the proportion of elderly people (aged 65 and more) is expected to almost double over this period, from 16.4% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2050. In Cyprus, it will more than double, from 11.9% in 2004 to 26.2% in 2050.
More than 10% of the EU25 population will be aged 80 or over in 2050.
Population will rise, then fall after 2025
Over the next two decades the total population of the EU25 is expected to increase by more than 13 million inhabitants, from 456.8 million on January 1, 2004 to 470.1 million on January 1, 2025.
Population growth in the EU25 until 2025 will be mainly the result of net migration, since total deaths in the EU25 will outnumber total births from 2010. The effect of net migration will no longer outweigh the natural decrease after 2025, when the population will start to decline gradually.
The population will reach 449.8 million on January 1, 2050, that is a decrease of more than 20 million inhabitants compared to 2025.
Over the whole projection period the EU25 population will decrease by 1.5%, resulting from a 0.4% increase for the EU15 and a 11.7% decrease for the ten new Member States.
Eurostat notes that information on population projections in the EU25, Bulgaria and Romania issued by Eurostat has been derived from the analysis and extrapolation of demographic trends.
Given the length of the projection period, results should be considered with caution.
Already declining in Eastern Europe
In 2004 the population is estimated to have decreased in seven Member States (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia).
By 2025 the population will have decreased in another six; Italy (from 2013), Germany and Slovenia (both 2014), Portugal (2018), Greece (2020) and Spain (2022). By 2050, twenty Member States are expected to have registered a decline in their population: the previous thirteen plus Finland (from 2028), Austria (2029), Denmark (2032), the Netherlands (2036), Belgium (2037), the United Kingdom (2040) and France (2042).
The population will still be increasing in Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden.
Between 2004 and 2050, the largest declines are expected to be observed in most of the new Member States: Latvia (-19.2%), Estonia (-16.6%), Lithuania (-16.4%), the Czech Republic (-12.9%), Hungary and Slovakia
(both -11.9%), and Poland (-11.8%).
Over the whole period, the strongest increases will be recorded in Luxembourg (+42.3%), Ireland (+36.0%), Cyprus (+33.5%) and Malta (+27.1%).
