EU wary over Bulgaria statistics, forecast revision

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The European Commission on Wednesday demanded that Bulgaria explain why it abruptly raised its 2010 budget deficit forecast, reiterating doubts about the quality of the country's statistics.

The European Union's executive said the bloc's statistics office, Eurostat, was sending a mission to the Black Sea country to assess whether it kept proper records of its public finances.

Bulgaria's finance ministry said it welcome such a mission and was positive the auditors would not find anything worrisome in the country's statistics books.

"The sooner the mission comes, the better, because they we will that we are accurate and meet all the criteria for accounting and transparency," a finance ministry spokesman said.

"We will open all books and show all the information. We have no worries," he said.

The quality of statistics has been a highly sensitive topic in the EU since it emerged last year that Greece had for years published faulty figures, which triggered a debt crisis in the country and the euro zone.

The EU Commission's concern about the quality of the Bulgarian statistics increased the cost for insuring the country's debt against restructuring or default to a 11 month-high. [ID:nLDE6580N6]

Bulgaria was forced in April to delay plans to adopt the euro after it revealed a hidden budget deficit for 2009 due to dozens of unaccounted procurement deals, signed by the previous government. [ID:nLDE63813A]

"The Commission is only belatedly being informed by the Bulgarian authorities about sizable revisions in the budget outlook, which constitutes a violation of treaty obligations," Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told a news briefing.

Bulgaria has said it plans to increase its 2010 budget deficit target to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product from zero, citing a prolonged recession that has slashed revenues.

The Commission cast doubt over the explanation.

"The Commission lacks information on why Bulgaria has revised its planned 2010 budget … within just a few weeks even though the macroeconomic scenario remains unchanged and even improved," said Altafaj.

The Bulgarian finance ministry said it had kept its EU partners informed on its budget plans and said that although it expected a small growth for 2010, it will be export-driven and will not help tax revenues.

Altafaj said Eurostat's mission would examine only the sharp revision to the 2009 deficit.

The new centre-right government revealed dozens of unaccounted public procurement deals signed by the previous Socialist-led cabinet, which increased the fiscal gap for 2009 to 3.7 percent of GDP from 1.9 percent. [ID:nLDE63813A]

Like many other EU governments, Bulgaria faces EU budget discipline procedures, which in theory can punish countries that persistently breach the bloc's deficit cap of 3 percent of GDP.

The EU is now working on sharpening the procedure as it has failed to keep governments' public finances under control.