Australia's top central banker said on Thursday he saw scope to cut interest rates further to ensure a durable economic upswing and cautioned about falling business investment and consumer spending.
Government data of Thursday sought to remind investors about downside risks to the economy with exports falling 11 percent in April from a month earlier. The numbers dragged the Australian dollar down to $0.8014 from around $0.8040 beforehand.
As a result of a slump in exports, Australia suffered its first trade deficit since July last year, just a day after first-quarter gross domestic product showed the country dodged a recession, helped by its best trade performance in 48 years.
"It is likely that activity has remained subdued in the June quarter," Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said.
"The rapid decline in business investment is almost certainly continuing. While consumer spending has held up quite well so far, it may be weaker over the next few months, as the one-off government payments pass and rising unemployment starts to weigh," he said in a speech.
Australia grew at a faster-than-expected rate of 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year, after contracting 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. It is one of the few developed nations to have avoided a recession.
But policymakers are treading a careful line, trying not to overstate the prospects of recovery amid growing worries that rapidly declining business investments will lead to higher unemployment.
Earlier this week, the RBA kept interest rates unchanged at 3 percent and said with inflation trending lower, the door was open for more rate cuts. It has has cut its cash rate by 4.25 percentage points in just seven months, taking it to a record low of 3.0 percent.
The centre-left Labor government has also weighed in over the same period, announcing record stimulus packages totalling more than A$52 billion ($42.9 billion).
The combined impact of the large fiscal and monetary stimulus has played a role in cushioning Australia from the worst global downturn in decades, Stevens said.
He added that monetary policy aimed to cut borrowing costs and support demand but the central bank would be careful not to encourage unsustainable debts.
LAST HURRAH FOR EXPORTS
Stevens said he was surprised by the fact that exports held up remarkably well in the first quarter. Part of the reason has been increased demand in China for construction.
But April trade data served a grim reminder that the impact of the global recession and the decline in commodity prices were starting to have an impact.
Exports tanked as the value of Australia's key commodity exports tumbled, with shipments of coal, coke and briquettes down 15 percent and the metal ores and minerals component falling 10 percent, mainly due to lower prices.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics also reported that revenues for coal and iron ore fell 18 percent and 21 percent, respectively, in April, boding ill for the terms of trade.
The terms of trade– what the country earns from exports compared to what it pays for imports– are expected to fall by 13.5 percent in 2009/10 by the government. Imports also fell, but were outpaced by the large drop in exports.
"This will have a further knock on impact to business investment which has also just started to contract," said Su-lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets.
"The impact upon output and employment has yet to have been felt. Accordingly, while we expect the RBA to remain sidelined for the next few months."
