More MTM losses for European banks in Q2 2008

Moody's Investors Service expects further write-downs for the large European banks' structured finance portfolios due to continued widening in US subprime RMBS spreads and deterioration in the credit quality of financial guarantors, together with falling property prices and the worsening US economic outlook.
In a new Special Comment released Wednesday, Moody’s said the second-quarter impact on these banks is likely to be significantly less than what has been observed in the first quarter of 2008, but nevertheless could be substantial in a few cases.
Moody's new report compares the mark-to-market losses taken by large European banks on their structured finance portfolios during the first quarter of 2008 to those expected by Moody's based on an extensive survey of most of these institutions. It then outlines Moody's expectations of how these prospective second quarter markdowns will likely impact the banks' first-half financial results.
With regard to the first-quarter 2008 results, Moody's generally found that the surveyed banks very consistently applied markdowns for those asset classes for which secondary market data is available.
"However, for other asset classes for which valuation is more subjective and likely to be model-driven, there was more variation among the banks, with the differences being fairly significant in some cases. For instance, some banks applied notably lower markdowns to their exposures to CDOs of ABS, SIVs and financial guarantors than other banks that applied more conservative marks closer to Moody's expectations," explained Anthony Parry, a Moody's Analyst and co-author of the report.
Moody's expectation of further write-downs in the second quarter of 2008 stems chiefly from two key factors.
"Firstly, US subprime RMBS spreads continued to widen for 2006 and 2007 vintages during the second quarter, with Aaa marks dropping by a further 5-10%, which should result in further write-downs mostly for these vintages. Secondly, the downgrades of several financial guarantors and the continued widening of guarantors' CDS spreads will likely lead to further write-downs of banks' financial guarantor exposures," continued Anthony Parry.
Moody's also expects that the combination of these two developments, together with falling property prices and a worsening US economic outlook, will likely have a negative impact on CDO of ABS and SIV marks.