CCLEI trend continues upward, but slowing down

The annual growth rate of a leading indicator used to predict the future direction of economic movements in Cyprus, continued upward for the tenth month in a row in March, but the trend slowed down below a 2% rate seen for five consecutive months, the University of Cyprus said in a report.

The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index, estimated by the university’s Economics Research Centre (CypERC), recorded a year-over-year increase of 1.7% in March, but slower than the rate of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively, for February and January, revised down from the previous estimate of 2.9% and 2.5% for the same months.

The CCLEI’s positive trend was supported by the improvement in annual growth rates of both domestic and international leading indicators, such as property sales, the total value of credit card transactions, retail sales volume and a decline in the price of the Brent benchmark crude oil.

In contrast, recent data for the Consumer Confidence Index in Cyprus and the euro area indicate a partial deterioration in the economic climate, negatively affecting the CCLEI.

Furthermore, preliminary data for the volume of electricity production, as well as the year-over-year decrease in tourist arrivals, also impacted the further strengthening of the Index.

In summary, the slowdown in the year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI reflects the great economic uncertainty prevailing internationally and its effects on economic growth rates worldwide, including Cyprus, the university report said.