CCLEI growth rate improves from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’

The year-over-year growth rate of a leading indicator used to predict the future direction of economic movements in Cyprus, improved in July, as a result of an increase in almost all the economic indicators composing the CCLEI, the University of Cyprus said in a monthly report.

The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI), estimated by the university’s Economics Research Centre (CypERC), recorded a year-over-year increase of 0.8% in July, following the y-o-y increases of 0.9% and 0.8% in June (‘stable’ growth) and May, respectively, based on recent and revised data.

Almost all components of the CCLEI, except the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Cyprus, contributed to this ‘positive’ growth, the university report said.

Specifically, at the domestic level, the year-over-year increases in property sales contracts, temperature-adjusted electricity production volume, tourist arrivals, credit card transactions, and retail sales volume positively influenced the CCLEI in July.

At the international level, the improvement in the Confidence Index in the euro area, coupled with the decline in the Brent crude oil price in July compared to a year earlier, also positively impacted the CCLEI.

However, the small year-over-year decline in the ESI in Cyprus restrained the further increase in the CCLEI in July.