CYPRUS: What will Theresa May’s ‘meaningful vote’ really mean for ex-pats?

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I hope Theresa May had a good Christmas for she has very little chance of a happy new year.


The curse of Brexit will continue to haunt the British Prime Minister and her beleaguered government, starting with the so-called ‘meaningful vote’ on the withdrawal agreement that she hopes will be approved by parliament before January is out.

That vote will have a huge bearing not only on the United Kingdom but on the lives of expat Britons around the world, including the thousands who live and work here in Cyprus. There are a number of likely outcomes each with its own set of consequences. So, if …

May wins the vote

Short of the UK totally abandoning Brexit, this is the best option for expats. It would give a high degree of certainty and, under a side-deal between the Cyprus and British governments, would allow life to continue pretty much as is.

The deal would keep trade flowing, with relatively few restrictions. UK nationals who have obtained a residency document for Cyprus by the end of 2020 would have all their rights protected. They could continue to live and work here, own property and access the healthcare system.

May loses the vote and asks the EU for a better deal

She has little chance of securing significant changes in the withdrawal agreement, but she might get an extension of the March exit date. That would be welcome, although it does foster uncertainty which is bad for business.

May loses and calls another referendum

The prime minister has set her face against this course and it is not clear what question would be asked if she should change her mind. A choice between a no-deal Brexit and May’s deal would seem likely to produce a favourable result for the prime minister, but Mrs May would have great difficulty getting approval for that referendum from her own Conservative party.

May loses vote and attempts to take Britain into EFTA

When British politicians speak of a Norway-plus solution it is the European Free Trade Association they mostly have in mind. This confederation of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland and Norway confers many EU rights on its citizens, but it also imposes EU responsibilities, including pretty much the same freedom of movement that the British government has adamantly opposed. The ‘plus’ bit of Norway-plus would give Britain an opt-out but it seems unlikely that his would be acceptable to either EFTA or the EU.

A general election is called in Britain

It is hard to see how May could lead her party into another election. If she did, and she won, she would get her deal. If Labour won, Jeremy Corbyn would press for an agreement to keep the UK in a Customs Union. This could be good news for expats.

But Corbyn is opposed to free movement of labour and is unlikely to get one without the other.

Britain crashes out with no deal

The worst possible outcome for expats in Cyprus. Residency rights would be in jeopardy and terms for trade of all sorts in doubt. Private UK pensions might not be paid in Cyprus.

State pensions would be paid but could be hit by a fall in sterling. Uncertainty would prevail, and fear of the unknown might cause as many problems as Brexit itself.

This is a particularly worrying prospect for British expats who will have concerns for both their businesses and their personal finances. Part of our mission in the Woodbrook Group is to ease those fears.

We are an international firm of financial advisers. Our team of highly experienced financial consultants can help you with solutions and services tailored to your unique situation in these unsettled times.

All of the options facing Britain throw up problems. We can’t solve them all, but we can help you to tackle them.