Unemployment in Cyprus: maybe not as bad as it seems

Registered unemployment in Cyprus rose by 11,549 compared with the same month of the previous year in July, or by 31.7%.
This was a slower pace of increase than the 37% recorded in June, but was still high by recent history.
Separately Eurostat reported that the unemployment rate reached 17.3% in June.
Yet we have tweeter @georgiemark to thank for pointing out that if you look at the monthly, seasonally adjusted data, things might not be as depressing as they seem.
Compared with the previous month, registered unemployment rose on a seasonally adjusted basis by 1.1%.
That is the slowest increase all year.
Also, the three-month moving average dropped to 2.6% in July from 4.4% in June, suggesting that the trend is also a good one.
This does not mean to say that unemployment, which is typically a lagging indicator, will not continue rising for a long time yet.
But along with the smaller than expected 47.5% haircut at Bank of Cyprus, a slower pace of decline in Inland Revenue Collections and, if the government is correct, a softer than expected Q2 decline to be reported next week, it is a little ray of hope in an otherwise depressing picture.

Fiona Mullen
www.sapientaeconomics.com