Ryanair aims to grow much faster than previously indicated over the next five years in a bid to exploit the weakness of mid-tier European rivals struggling with recession, the firm's chief operating officer has told Reuters.
Three decades after it launched the industry's cheap flights revolution, the Irish airline hopes to raise passenger numbers by more than 8 percent annually in 2015-18, double last year's growth and up from a forecast of 5 percent it gave in March.
"What we have indicated to the market is pretty conservative, it is at the lowest level we would expect," deputy CEO and Chief Operating Officer Michael Cawley said in an interview. "It's very likely to be much higher, edging up to 7 or 8 or even more."
The bullish tone is firmly at odds with the economic troubles afflicting business and governments across Europe.
Cawley said the debt problems faced by many of the continent's less developed and tourism-heavy southern countries would play into Ryanair's hands, forcing the privatisation of airports and liberalisation of labour markets to provide the cheaper regimes it demands before investing in a route.
The airline is "quite optimistic" it can clinch a deal to boost passengers to Greece to 10 million passengers per year from 1.5 million at present and said the government was actively trying to unwind historic agreements with airports.
"You can look at the countries on the periphery and say they are basket cases, but in fact the inverse of that is the case. They are under-served," Cawley said.
He said, for example, that the number of seats per head of population was around five times higher in Dublin, Ryanair's home base, than in Athens, pointing to the room for expansion.
Cawley said he saw huge potential in secondary airports in other parts of the Balkans and described Israel as a "fantastic opportunity", principally as a tourist destination.
ON A BUDGET
Ryanair's no-frills model has attracted more international scheduled passengers than any other airline, and it hopes to boost its share of the European short-haul market from around 12 percent now to 20 percent within a decade.
Agreeing to buy 175 Boeing planes in March, the airline said it would grow its fleet to 400 by 2018, flying 100 million passengers per year, substantially at the expense of Europe's national legacy carriers.
But Cawley said numbers would only be that low if a "very significant" number of planes were sold or returned to leasing companies and that a number of 420-430 planes was more likely.
Ryanair has a history of guiding the market down before beating expectations. It is due to release its full-year results next Monday, with analysts forecasting pre-tax profit of 633 million euros, according to a Reuters poll.
Rapid expansion will come at a cost, however, with discounted tickets on new routes cancelling out price increases elsewhere, cutting average fare growth sharply from the 16 percent seen last year.
"Fares (on new routes) will reduce, undoubtedly, that is how we expand," Cawley said. "That's the only way to stimulate more people to travel. particularly in the economic environment we are in today."
"But (overall) we should see fares stable at least."
Non-ticket income from extras such as baggage and in-flight refreshments, which accounted for 21 percent of revenues last year, will show "considerable growth" in 2013, boosted by the surprisingly successful roll out of reserved seating on planes.
It is more difficult to predict how they will perform over the next few years, but they will likely grow "a little bit ahead of passenger traffic," Cawley said.
