–
By Dave Graham, Reuters
The Bundesbank's decision to ask the German president to dismiss a divisive board member has put him and his ally Chancellor Angela Merkel in a jam: they'll be damned if he does, and damned if he doesn't.
Central banker Thilo Sarrazin has exposed deep rifts in Germany over the integration of immigrants with disparaging remarks about Muslims and theories on Jewish genes, prompting political leaders to pile pressure on the Bundesbank to act.
The central bank last Thursday duly requested that President Christian Wulff remove board member Sarrazin, an unprecedented step for which Merkel said she had "great respect" — though it may have far-reaching consequences that could weaken her hold on power.
As the dust settles from the protest kicked up by Sarrazin, Merkel and her allies have become more guarded about criticising the 65-year-old, reflecting a growing awareness of the support he enjoys among voters and the legal threat he poses.
"It's a lose-lose situation," said Ulrich von Alemann, a political scientist at the University of Duesseldorf. "The legal foundation for the dismissal appears shaky. But Wulff has been clever to seek the government's view on the matter first."
Following Wulff's request, the chancellery asked the finance ministry to submit a legal assessment of Sarrazin's conduct. The ministry has yet to signal when its review will be complete.
If removed from office, Sarrazin has intimated he will fight the decision, raising the prospect of a bruising court case that may turn the provocative banker into a hero and raise questions over whether Merkel and her ministers acted correctly.
The mass-selling daily Bild on Wednesday urged the public to tell Wulff "what they really think" about Sarrazin, saying polls showed between 50 and 95% of Germans did not want him sacked and backed his criticism of immigrants over integration.
If Wulff does not fire Sarrazin, who is now under police protection following threats to his life, he will undermine the very politicians who catapulted him to the presidency in June.
He also would risk accusations of hypocrisy after he broke with the tradition of presidential impartiality by appearing to pre-empt the bank's decision a day before it was announced.
COURT BATTLE
Bastions of conservative opinion in Germany say the recall of Sarrazin — whose attacks on Muslim culture are part of his new book "Deutschland schafft sich ab" (Germany does away with itself) — is unlikely to bring much peace to the government.
"As a martyr of freedom of opinion, and a chief witness to charges made by broad swathes of the population, Sarrazin will haunt them a long time," leading conservative daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung said after the central bank's decision.
As a senior member of the Bundesbank, Sarrazin, whose book raced to the top of bestseller lists, has reason to suppose he may be safe from attack, according to legal experts.
A custodian of the post-war West German economy, the central bank was created as a bulwark of independence, investing its top appointees with considerable protection against political interference once in office, making them hard to sack.
If the bank cannot prove Sarrazin is guilty of serious misconduct, it is unclear whether other charges will stick. Many analysts believe the bank will try to show he has brought its name into disrepute through a lack of restraint.
Even this may not spare the government a drawn-out fight.
Friederike Goebbels, a specialist on German labour law at legal firm Jones Day, said while there were grounds to dismiss Sarrazin, there was enough ambiguity about the limits of his job that he could still force a lengthy court battle.
"Even among legal experts there are various takes on this. It really depends on your subjective view of the matter, which is what makes this so difficult," she said. "In the end, whoever decides will have to weigh up the interests at stake."
Perhaps more worrying for Merkel is the fact her own condemnation of Sarrazin has run contrary to the instincts of many voters in her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU).
Though Sarrazin is a member of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), polls show his views have support among conservatives, which could turn into a problem for Merkel, said political scientist Gerd Langguth at the University of Bonn.
The SPD is already suffering for moving to expel Sarrazin for his views, according to a new poll
Langguth said that given the international standing of the Bundesbank, Merkel had no choice but to rebuke Sarrazin, who has argued that Muslims are lowering the intelligence of German society, exploit the welfare state and refuse to integrate.
"However, she condemned him so unequivocally that a lot of conservative voters don't agree with her," Langguth said.
Merkel's biggest electoral test before 2013 is next March's vote in Baden-Wuerttemberg, a powerful southwestern state of nearly 11 mln people which the CDU have ruled since 1953.
Latest polls show the CDU could be unseated by a combination of the SPD and Greens, which would be a major blow for Merkel.
"CDU voters won't forget (Sarrazin)," said Langguth, looking ahead to the vote. "This means the issue has now become about the leadership of the party."
