Russian grain crop down 38% so far

Russia has enough grain to cover its needs after harvesting 38% less in 2010, a senior official said on Monday, but his data indicated the former exporter is likely to import millions of tonnes.
Russia, which had been the world's third-largest wheat exporter, was hit by a severe drought in many producing regions that destroyed large parts of its crop and raised the issue of imports.
Analysts have estimated its imports at 1.5-2 mln tonnes, while a report in Vedomosti daily said Russia could import at least 5 mln tonnes. An Agriculture Ministry spokesman has denied the report.
Deputy Agriculture Minister Alexander Petrikov said Russia had harvested 40.3 mln tonnes of grain by bunker weight by August 19.
He said grains had been harvested from 19.3 mln hectares, or 48% of the sown area. Average yields fell to 2.08 tonnes per hectare from 2.69 tonnes per hectare on August 19 2009.
Bunker weight is normally 7-8% higher than clean weight obtained after grain is cleaned and dried. But the difference may be lower in hot and dry years like this one.
Final crop outcome is calculated by clean weight.
Petrikov confirmed the ministry's 2010 crop forecast of 65-67 mln tonnes by an optimistic scenario and 60 mln tonnes by a pessimistic one.
However the country's carry-over stocks, which had been previously estimated by the state statistics office Rosstat at 21.7 mln tonnes and by the Agriculture Ministry at 24 mln tonnes as of July 1, already include the 9.5 mln tonnes of intervention stocks.
Taking into account the need to allocate some 11-12 mln tonnes for winter sowing due to start in August, Russia appears unable to do without imports.
Analysts have said Kazakhstan and Ukraine may provide some grain to Russia. The Russian province of Tatarstan has already asked to buy up to 0.5 mln tonnes of grain in Belarus.