U.S crude oil is expected to
average $79.44 a barrel in 2010, a Reuters poll showed on
Monday, a slight decline from the June poll and the third
consecutive lower monthly forecast.
The poll of 31 analysts, banks and government agencies
showed a lower consensus forecast, and respondents cited Chinese
macroeconomic policy, global oversupply and a seasonal drop in
demand to explain their forecasts.
Oil has averaged above $75 a barrel in 2010, its second
highest average price ever, but has come up against resistance
any higher, as disparate global data shows a fragile recovery
from the economic recession has only just begun to take hold.
"It will not be well into Q3 that oil decisively breaks
above $80/bbl," said senior analyst Harry Tchilinguirian at BNP
Paribas, who left U.S. crude forecasts unchanged based on a
strong dollar and recent Chinese currency moves.
Last month China reformed its currency by increasing the
yuan's flexibility and ending a 23-month-old peg to the dollar.
China's central bank sent clear signals it would keep an
appropriately loose monetary policy.
"Inflation pressures may be building in the East, but in
terms of the countries that matter for oil demand growth, we are
not expecting any acceleration in the pace of monetary policy
tightening in China," Tchilinguirian said.
China, with Q2 GDP growth at 10.3 percent, imported 22
million tonnes of crude oil in June, up 34 percent from a year
earlier.
Click here to watch a Reuters Insider television
interview on the outlook for oil prices with Deutsche Bank's
Global Head of Commodities Research Michael Lewis.
http://link.reuters.com/byf39m
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U.S. light crude was trading around $78.55 on Monday.
SEASONAL DEMAND
This month the Reuters oil price poll leaves the second
quarter and moves into the third as the front quarter for
medium-term forecasts, with some analysts saying seasonal oil
market supply tightness could crop up before October.
U.S. crude is expected to average $77.26 in the third
quarter of 2010, down from $78.50 in the last poll.
"We should get the first significant stock draw of the year
in 3Q10," said Global Oil Analyst Christophe Barret at Credit
Agricole-CIB, who left their Q3 WTI price unchanged but raised
the year-end forecast to $78 from $77.60 in last month's poll.
"On the supply side, field maintenance in the North Sea,
production disruption in Nigeria, Angola and Iraq and a very
active hurricane season in the U.S. are limiting crude
availabilities in 2H10," Barret said.
U.S. crude prices this year have risen to trade as high as
$87.15 in April, and have fallen as low as $64.24 in May.
Production delays at Nexen's 18,000-bpd Scott platform in
the North Sea dropped the Forties crude supply this month, which
sent Brent futures briefly into backwardation and came as North
Sea output is set to fall by 17 percent in August on seasonal
maintenance.
Private weather forecaster WSI Corp has forecast 19 named
storms, 11 hurricanes and five intense hurricanes in the Gulf of
Mexico this year, above the 1950-2009 averages of 10 named
storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.
DEMAND RESURGENCE
Poll numbers showed a slightly bullish forecast into the
rest of the calendar year, with fourth quarter data rising to
$79.75 per barrel on guarded optimism that supply tightness will
over time drive prices higher.
"Ongoing macro headwinds will keep any crude price upticks
in check, at least for the time being," said Sven Streitmayer at
Landesbank, .
"However, strong demand growth, shrinking global inventories
and renewed investor interest will lead to higher oil prices in
the medium term."
The U.S. Energy Information Administration this month raised
its 2010 world oil demand growth forecast by 60,000 bpd from its
previous estimate, with nearly all the increase coming from
outside major industrialized countries.
The International Energy Agency, which represents consumer
nations and looks primarily at global oil supply, this month
said OECD demand would fall faster than previously expected into
2011, though predicted robust demand in emerging markets.
The Paris-based IEA said rising supplies would offset higher
demand through 2015, and this month set its medium-term outlook
for global oil demand growth at an average of 1.4 percent
annually, or 1.2 million bpd from 2009 to 2010, up from a June
forecast of 540,000 bpd.
