Alpha Bank Q1 net profit seen down 49 percent

Alpha Bank, Greece's third-largest lender, was expected to report a 49 percent drop  in first-quarter net profit, hurt by the recession and the  country's debt crisis, a Reuters poll found.  Net profit was forecast at 43.5 million euros ($53 million),  with net interest income seen up 10 percent to 443 million.  A deepening recession in Greece, with the economy seen  contracting by 4.0 percent this year, has resulted in anaemic  loan growth. Asset quality deterioration has led to a rise in  loan-loss provisioning.  Greek banks also faced higher funding costs as the  availability of wholesale funding fell due to the debt crisis.  Higher funding costs squeezed net interest margins while Greek  government bond holdings weighed on their bottom line.

"We believe the first quarter is still too early to see any  impact from the austerity measures on provisioning. The seasonal  bias of putting more provisions into the fourth quarter is also  likely to flatter the first quarter quarter-on-quarter for some  banks, but not of course year-on-year. We still expect the trend  to be firmly upwards," said Credit Suisse in a research note.  Alpha Bank, which also has operations in Bulgaria, Romania,  Cyprus, Serbia and Albania, was expected to post a 30 percent  rise in provisions to 204 million euros.  Its shares have fallen 42 percent since the start of the  year, underperforming the Greek equities market <.ATG>, which  has dropped 27 percent.

The shares trade about 9 times estimated 2010 earnings  versus a multiple of 12 for European peers.

Following is a summary of forecasts (in million euros):

Q1 Net Q1 NII Q1 provisions

Average 43.5 443.2 204.3

Median 44.6 445.0 200.0

Highest 61.0 450.4 220.0

Lowest 33.0 433.9 199.0

Forecasts 9 9 9

Q1 2009 85.7 402.6 157.3

Forecasts by: HSBC, Chevreux, Bank of America Merrill Lynch,

Proton Bank, Piraeus Securities, EFG Eurobank Securities, Euroxx

Securities, National Securities, and Investment Bank of Greece.