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BY DR. OZAY MEHMET
The CTP/AKEL elite management of the “made in Cyprus” saga died a sudden death in Sunday’s elections in northern Cyprus that gave the nationalist veteran politician, Dr. Dervis Eroglu a slim victory with just over 50% of 76% of voters who went to the polls. Mehmet Ali Talat’s departure can now be expected to be followed within the next 18 months by President Christofias.
A brand new set of dynamics, mostly externally driven, will now replace the ill-fated “made in Cyprus” round, so mishandled by the leftist leaders. No doubt, both were men of good will and deserve the wide international acclaim they won.
But this CTP/AKEL agenda suffered from structural factors that must be properly evaluated to avoid disappointment: the chosen style in negotiations was too “imperial”, self-centered and secretive for the democratic masses of the island. Both leaders swore to an oath of secrecy, and Talat, in particular, in the aftermath of the disastrous defeat of the CTP in 2008, attempted to carry on the delicate negotiations almost single-handedly with just one or two key advisors.
The Talat-Christofias talks seemed to drag on at snail’s pace. After 70-plus meetings they produced too little too late to convince the skeptical voters in the north, already looking for “revenge” for being treated as “EU orphans” since 2004. Feelings of “selling out”, right or wrong, played a key factor in his rejection by the voters last Sunday.
Now the Annan Plan can officially be declared dead. Sunday’s vote is, indirectly, a No referendum in the north comparable to the OXI in the south of May 2004.
Mr. Downer and the team working under the UN Secretary General’s “good offices” mission might as well plan to leave the island shortly after June 15 when the Security Council is due to review the UNFICYP mandate.
Unlike Talat, the nationalist Eroglu will not negotiate away the “Turkish Republic of North Cyprus” which he sees as the symbol of the inalienable right of Turkish Cypriots as the equivalent right of Greek Cypriots in the south. However, he may be persuaded to transfer part of Turkish Cypriot sovereignty, on terms of equality with the Greek Cypriot side, to be vested in some kind of Cypriot federalism.
The real stumbling block is the Greek Cypriot unwillingness to give up the existing Republic. Now, the Turkish Cypriots, in voting for Eroglu, have owned up to their state in the north.
What is likely to happen? The talks will limp along, but without any heart or soul left. It is unthinkable that Eroglu, who speaks no English, can engage Christofias in direct negotiations.
More than likely, real decision-making over the future of the island will now shift to Ankara, Athens, London and beyond. In a way, we are back to the days of 1959 when external actors cooked up the London-Zurich Agreements leading to Independence in 1960.
Significantly, the 1960 Independence and the transfer of sovereignty from UK to the Cypriots contain five signatories: UK, Greece and Turkey plus the two Cypriot communities.
Now, a new sovereignty sharing agreement may be worked out through a five-party international conference. It may be initiated by Ankara and Athens, reinforced by UK, the three Guarantor Powers, supported by the EU and UN. The Greek and Turkish Cypriot sides will have to be “encouraged” to go along.
In a surprising manner, the nationalist victory in Sunday’s poll may provide the EU to adopt a more evenhanded Cyprus policy. For example, the EU could utilize the new opportunities for majority decision-making under the new Lisbon Treaty, to approve and implement the Direct Trade Resolution as a first step in lifting the economic embargo on the north now blocking free movement of goods and services. The north needs to be fully incorporated as an economic unit within the European custom union as recommended in a 2006 World Bank report.
If the EU finally honors its long-standing pledge to the Turkish Cypriots, Ankara would then open its ports to Greek Cypriot planes and ships as it declared long ago (see Action Plan in the Annex to the Letter of the Turkish Representative to the UN Secretary General, 24/1/2006).
Once the impasse is broken, the externally-driven Cyprus settlement can proceed on strict conditions of political equality of the two sides for a brand new state formation in Cyprus.
A suitably weak Eroglu will have no choice but to go along with Ankara in the driver’s seat. Similarly, with a virtually bankrupt Greece and a south stagnating, the conditions for a settlement in Cyprus may not be as bleak as they look.
Ozay Mehmet, Ph.D is Dean, Faculty of Business and Economics at EMU and Professor Emeritus at Carleton University, Canada.
