Economists are split as to whether the Bank of England will extend its asset purchase programme in August, but it may still reach a total of 150 billion pounds, a Reuters poll showed.
With British interest rates already at an all-time low of 0.5 percent, the policy debate has focused entirely on its purchases of government bonds under its "quantitative easing" (QE) programme to haul the economy out of recession.
But a summer nationwide tour by one of its leading policymakers to explain how it all worked to the public did little to clear up for economists whether or not the bank intends to extend the scheme at its next meeting on August 6.
Thirty-one of 63 economists in a poll taken this week said it would increase the programme to the full 150 billion pounds ($247 billion) allowed by the Treasury, while 32 said it would not. So far the BoE has pledged to buy only 125 billion of the permitted amount.
Earlier this month, a slightly more convincing 35 of 56 in a poll said it would go ahead in August after it surprised markets earlier in July by not announcing an intention to ramp up its purchases.
"The BoE has reached a plateau in its policy cycle at which point there isn't sufficient optimism to justify more aggressive talk of an exit strategy, but at the same time conditions have improved sufficiently to limit the need for more QE," said Lena Komileva at broker Tullett Prebon.
However, the median forecast from economists showed the BoE would end up spending the 150 billion pounds, with many saying it would take a pause in August, when it publishes its quarterly economic outlook, to assess the effects of the scheme so far before proceeding.
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The poll showed 21 of 60 who answered the question said it would halt QE at 125 billion pounds, while 26 said it would get to 150 billion, and 13 forecast more than that. The top forecast in the range saw the bank doubling the scheme to reach 300 billion.
"What the Bank seems to be saying is don't assume we are finished. And there is every chance we may see a more prolonged pause before they decide whether to do any more," said Ross Walker at RBS.
Walker questioned what more the bank could gather about the plan's effectiveness in two or three months, but said a pause now could reflect the fact there is not a lot more to do. No final yet to the QE scheme might also give some reassurance to the gilt market, where the BoE is currently the biggest buyer.
The bank's main base rate was easier to forecast for economists. Medians showed the BoE leaving it on hold at a record low of 0.5 percent until the end of the second quarter next year, unchanged from a survey earlier this month.
Rates were then predicted to gradually pick up from then to reach 1.25 percent by the end of 2010 as the British economy finally emerges from a deep and prolonged recession.
The consensus from economists said the BoE Inflation Report to be published on August 12 would show downward revisions to its May forecasts for growth this year, while leaving them unchanged for 2010.
In May the bank said any recovery in the economy would be fragile and inflation was likely to undershoot the central bank's 2 percent target on a two-year horizon.
The poll also showed the vast majority of economists thought the BoE would revise up its forecasts for inflation this year and next.
The British economy sank by a larger than expected 0.8 percent in the second quarter of the year and by 5.6 percent on the year, the steepest yearly fall since similar records began in 1955. Such data could well see the BoE hold fire on any talk of an exit strategy from ultra-loose monetary policies for some time.
