Japan and Germany see signs of growth in 2010

545 views
2 mins read

Key ministers from Japan and Germany saw signs of growth next year and a global consumer survey published on Tuesday found confidence stabilising, though unemployment in the euro zone jumped to a near 10-year high.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on a visit to Beijing that China, single biggest holder of U.S. government debt, backed efforts by President Barack Obama's administration to pump up the ailing U.S. economy.

Japan's finance minister, Kaoru Yosano, said the country's worst post-war recession has already hit bottom but a full recovery might not come until early 2010 as manufacturers gradually lifted output from very low levels.

German Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg saw signs of potential economic growth next year.

His comment came after news that unemployment in the 16 countries using the euro jumped to 9.2 percent — 14.6 million people — in April, its highest level since September 1999, dampening hopes of any quick recovery.

Confidence about a recovery in Europe continues to lag growing optimism in Asia and the United States.

"Although there are mounting signs that the rate of economic contraction across the euro zone is moderating appreciably and business confidence has risen … this is unlikely to prevent unemployment from rising substantially further," said economist Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight.

A survey by Ipsos and Reuters found global consumer confidence stabilising after an 18-month fall, providing a further glimmer of hope for a world economy in which three quarters of households have cut spending.

Switzerland showed how it was suffering, saying its economy shrank 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March for its worst performance since 1992, as a slump in exports and construction continued.

British mortgage approvals for house purchases were slightly higher than expected in April but still at a subdued level pointing to further house price falls, official data showed.

But a survey by the Confederation of British Industry, an employers group, found that while firms expect access to credit to remain tight over the next three months, it should be slightly less so than in the last quarter.

World stocks were 0.3 percent higher at midday, matching the gain by the Nikkei stock average which recorded a second straight close at an eight-month high.

The dollar hit a 2009 low on a trade-weighted basis as investors favoured riskier assets.

EUROPE DICEY

The Ipsos/Reuters survey, conducted by Ipsos and Reuters in late April and early May, found consumer confidence in the United States rose two percentage points to 13 percent since the last poll in November.

In China, confidence jumped to 61 percent from 46 percent and in India it increased five points to 70 percent. But in Europe consumer confidence dropped nine points to 23 percent, and in Brazil it fell to 56 percent from 61 percent.

"It looks like we have hit bottom and so there are glimmers of hope," said Clifford Young of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, which polled 23,000 people in 23 countries.

"The stabilisation is basically happening in the United States, India and China and that has staunched a bit the bleed around the world," he said. "That being said, Europe is still dicey as well as Brazil and Russia."

U.S. STIMULUS

Signs that massive stimulus efforts by policymakers around the world are starting to have an impact will be a relief for governments that have racked up huge deficits to pay for them.

Geithner, on his first visit to China as U.S. Treasury chief, said: "I've actually found a lot of confidence here in China, justifiable confidence, in the strength and resilience and dynamism of the American economy".

China, which held $768 billion in Treasuries as of March, has watched uneasily as Washington spends lavishly to try to haul the economy out of its deepest recession in 80 years, fearing inflation that will erode the value of its holdings.

Chinese leaders have been the target of public criticism that they should be spending more money at home instead of lending it to America.

Australia's central bank kept interest rates unchanged as data showed improvements in the export and housing sectors, and suggested the country might be one of the few to have dodged recession last quarter.