Turkish Cypriots vote on Sunday in a parliamentary election likely to give a boost to hardliners and complicate the fragile peace process with Greek Cypriots in the divided Mediterranean island.
The vote in the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the northern half of the island only recognised by Turkey, will take place as pressure mounts for Greek and Turkish Cypriots to reach a deal in U.N.-backed reunification talks.
Cyprus has been divided since a Turkish invasion in 1974, triggered by a brief Greek-inspired coup.
The frozen conflict is an obstacle to Turkey's goal of joining the European Union. The island is so far represented in the bloc only by the Greek Cypriots, who say they will obstruct Turkish entry as long as Cyprus is divided.
The outcome of the vote may hinder already difficult reunification talks led by Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat and his Greek Cypriot counterpart Demetris Christofias.
The opposition National Unity Party (UBP), which advocates a two-state solution, is leading opinion polls, with Talat's ruling Republican Turkish Party (CTP) trailing by a wide margin.
Talat's position as Turkish Cypriot leader will not be affected, but his room to manoeuvre in peace talks could be crimped by a UBP win.
Talat and Christofias are leading talks on reunifying Cyprus as a federation of two ethnic regions, and analysts and diplomats say this may be their last chance.
"It all depends on how big a win the UBP will have … But it will mean Talat has less of a free hand in negotiations essentially," a Western diplomat told Reuters.
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The UBP says it will not try to undermine the talks, but does not support a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation.
"We want a fair, realistic solution based on two states and two peoples," said a UBP spokesman, who refused to be named.
"We will not seek to sideline Talat or ignore what he has has done so far. We won't seek to wipe the slate clean."
Talat and Christofias are debating complex, divisive issues ranging from the property rights of refugees to power-sharing. Any deal they reach must go to a public referendum.
In 2004, Greek Cypriots rejected a U.N. reunification plan in a referendum, but it was accepted by the Turkish Cypriots.
A recent poll put the UBP in the lead with 44.4 percent of the vote, with the CTP at 27.4 percent.
Pollsters say the isolated economy of the north, expected to contract by 5 percent in 2009, is the main concern of the 200,000 eligible voters, rather than peace talks. Unemployment among the young, estimated at 24 percent, is stirring discontent.
"Voters are more concerned with the poorly performing economy, unemployment and the rising cost of living," said Muharrem Faiz of Kadem polling agency.
Diplomats are anxious to see a deal on Cyprus soon, before Talat's tenure expires in 2010, and an assessment of Turkey's EU entry talks at the end of this year.
"Most people are hopeful, but worried that time is running out for a federal solution. If Talat and Christofias can't do it, who can?"said Istanbul-based Hugh Pope, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group think-tank.
