UK’s NIESR estimates GDP shrank 1.5 pct in Q1 2009

Britain's economy probably shrank by 1.5 percent in the first three months of this year after a 1.6 percent decline in the last three months of 2008, leading researchers said on Wednesday.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, an academic body that has a good track record of forecasting British economic growth, said the economic slowdown so far mirrored the one which started in 1979.

"While there is no obvious reason why the profile of the current recession should match that of the early 1980s, the rate of output decline so far has been very similar," NIESR said.

"If the 1980s profile were followed, output would continue to decline for up to another year and it would take two further years before the level of output enjoyed at the start of 2008 would be reached again," the report continued.

Britain publishes its first official estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product on April 24.

NIESR bases its estimate on official monthly industrial production figures and private-sector services surveys, among other data.