Analysts are still waiting for the official measure of British retail sales to reflect the gloom and doom prevalent for months in business surveys.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed sales volumes jumped 0.8 percent in July, confounding expectations of a decline.
Poor weather and grim economic data means August may be payback time. Analysts polled by Reuters expect sales volumes to fall by 0.5 percent on the month. That would leave sales 1.6 percent higher than a year ago, still a brighter picture than business surveys.
Unpredictable weather and the timing of holidays make retail sales data notoriously volatile but the resilience of the official data is striking when other indicators suggest the economy is on the verge of its first recession since the early 1990s.
With house prices tumbling, unemployment rising and real incomes being squeezed, there is little for consumers to feel cheery about.
"The reliable early warning indicators unanimously point to the trend in retail sales growth being sharply downwards," said Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas.
DATA DISPARITY
The suspect firmness of the official data has prompted even the Bank of England to concede it is placing more weight than usual on surveys. These have not been pretty. A survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed retail sales fell in August at their fastest rate since records began in 1983.
"The official retail sales figures continue to contrast with the anecdotal and most of the survey evidence that suggests consumers are keeping their wallets in their pockets," said Paul Dales at Capital Economics.
"We continue to think that it is only a matter of time before the official data become more downbeat."
One trend that was apparent in July's sale release was Britons' growing willingness to trade down. The Office for National Statistics said there was evidence consumers were moving to discount food stores or switching to discount lines of merchandise.
This trend is likely to have continued into August.
Researchers TNS Worldpanel said this week that budget-focused Asda reached its highest ever UK grocery market share of 17.3 percent in the 12 weeks to September 7, while discount group Aldi achieved its best ever sales growth of 20.8 percent.
Britain's biggest retailer Tesco Plc announced a new low-cost range of products and price cuts on Wednesday, taking the fight to budget supermarket rivals that have eaten into its market share.
