EIU says Cassoulides better positioned to win Presidential race

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) have revised their forecast for the outcome of the Cyprus presidential election due in February 2008, following the decision by the communist Progressive Party of the Working People (Akel), the largest party in parliament, to put forward its own leader, Demetris Christofias, as a candidate. Previously, the Economist Intelligence Unit had assumed that the incumbent, Tassos Papadopoulos, who hails from the centre-right Democratic Party (Diko), would win on the basis renewed support from Akel. However, we now assume that the presidential election will be won by Ioannis Cassoulides of the opposition, right-of-centre Democratic Rally (Disy). Although the three main candidates have a more or less equal chance of advancing to the second round, support for

Papadopoulos appears to be waning and Cassoulides has a better chance than Christofias of attracting support from beyond his own party. Prospects for a resumption of negotiations to solve the Cyprus question would improve under a Cassoulides presidency, but a solution to the Cyprus problem would still not be guaranteed.

In the 2006 parliamentary election Akel won 31.1% of the vote, Disy 30.3% and Diko 17.9%. Edek (8.9%) and the European Party (5.8%) have declared their support for Papadopoulos, but given that not all of these parties” members will vote for Papadopoulos, the voting arithmetic makes it slightly more likely that Cassoulides and Christofias will proceed to the second round.

Diko voters generally have more in common ideologically with Disy than with Akel, and will probably not forgive Akel for withdrawing support for Papadopoulos, therefore Cassoulides stands a better chance of winning in the second round. However, Cassoulides.s chances are only slightly better than those of Papadopoulos. Papadopoulos.s advantages are that he still enjoys strong support for having rejected the UN-backed reunification plan (the Annan Plan) in April 2004; he has the most personal wealth from which to draw for advertising; and he will have the support of at least the two state television stations, which are always supportive of the government of the day,

as well as the largest circulation newspaper, Phileleftheros.

Supporters of Papadopoulos are already suggesting that Akel and Disy are plotting with

the US and Britain to try to reimpose the Annan Plan, therefore a long and unpleasant campaign can be expected over the next few months, which could turn the fortunes of any of the three major candidates.

Papadopoulos.s nervousness about his prospects is underlined by the fact that he unexpectedly asked the UN for a meeting with the Turkish Cypriot leader and president of the unrecognised Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Mehmet Ali Talat, just one day before the anniversary on July 8th of the dormant Gambari process that was supposed to lead to renewed talks. Apart from a handshake during a UN meeting that they both attended, the two leaders have met only once since the referendum and Papadopulos has

repeatedly stated that a meeting without substance would be pointless. July 8th was also the day on which Akel made its decision about the candidacy of Christofias. Another sign of concern is that before Akel”s decision the government announced a supplementary budget targeted mainly at Akel”s poorer voters.

While little progress to solve the Cyprus problem can be expected before the election, fully fledged talks to solve the Cyprus problem are more likely under a presidency led by Cassoulides, since he is more likely to engage in dialogue with Turkish Cypriots and pursue confidence-building measures. However, a solution will still be difficult, as Greek Cypriot opinion has hardened since the referendum and progress will depend to a large degree on the nature of the political scene in Turkey.

The repercussions of the Cyprus problem will continue to complicate relations between the EU and third countries and between the EU and NATO. The issue is also beginning to create a difficult situation for Russia, a UN Security Council permanent member and traditionally an ally of the Greek Cypriots, which now has large commercial interests with Turkey, involving oil and gas.