German EU presidency faces tough challenges

Chancellor Angela Merkel plans to use Germany‘s European Union presidency in the first half of 2007 for a last-ditch effort to save the bloc’s failed constitution while pushing forward on other key issues such as energy and security.

Given the EU’s growing global role, however, Germany will also end up grappling with flashpoints in Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan as well as crises closer to home such as a possible bid by Kosovo for unilateral independence.

Merkel, who has been in office for just over one year, has won high marks for her confident approach to foreign affairs which helped resolve the EU’s budget crisis last year and restored ties with the United States, strained due to Iraq war differences.

Germany, as the EU’s biggest economy and largest contributor to the bloc’s budget, has more clout than most other countries to broker tough compromises and set the pace on key issues.

There are thus hopes that Germany will help end the bloc’s current crisis of confidence triggered by last year’s French and Dutch veto of a draft EU constitution.

However any major decisions will have to be approved by all 27 future member states. Merkel took charge of the EU on January 1 – the same day the bloc gained two new members with the accession of Bulgaria and Romania.

“Six months is not very long – one should not expect miracles from the German EU presidency,” said Peter Becker, an EU expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) think tank.

Events during the German presidency include a ceremony in Berlin on March 25 marking the 50th anniversary of the 1957 Treaty of Rome, which founded the EU’s forerunner common market.

There will be regular EU summits in Brussels on March 8-9 and June 21-22. Special EU summits are also to be held: with the US in April, Russia in May and with Canada and Japan in June.

As its top presidency theme, Germany wants to get the constitution back on the EU agenda. Although a total of 18 EU member states will have ratified the treaty by early 2007, it cannot enter into force without unanimous approval.

Voters in France and the Netherlands rejected the constitution in 2005 which in effect torpedoed the entire project. “The constitution is dead,” said Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot.

Diplomats say the constitution will probably have to be broken up into separate treaties and renamed something less ambitious such as ‘Treaty of Berlin’. These are core demands of the Dutch government, which says it would then put a watered-down text to parliament for approval in order to avoid another dangerous referendum.

EU expert Becker cautions that reopening the treaty may be more complicated than some EU leaders think.

“Each country inserted its own national ‘bonbon’ into the constitution and the problem is that when one tries to make compromises it will be difficult to tie up the whole package again,” he said.

Merkel’s minimum goal on the constitution is to agree a timetable and 2009 deadline for approving a new text.

Complicating things, however, is the fact that French presidential elections are due to be held in May. This means no clear French policy on the constitution is likely until later in 2007 with the added threat that the treaty could become an election issue.

In addition to British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is expected to resign before summer, the EU is packed with weak or wobbly governments which could hinder attempts by the German presidency to tackle major issues.

Energy security is the major theme to be addressed at the March summit. But here again major differences among EU states on energy mean that only limited moves are expected.

France, for example, produces almost 80% of its electricity from nuclear power stations, whereas Germany plans to close all its nuclear plants by 2021.

Meanwhile, countries like Poland, which are heavily dependent on Russian energy, are seeking EU guarantees in case of future cut-offs by Moscow.

Away from the formal German EU agenda, a series of international crises could swiftly crowd in on Merkel’s presidency, diplomats in Berlin warn.

Violence in Iraq, the nuclear standoff with Iran, and the worsening military situation in Afghanistan for NATO forces are issues which could spin out of control under Germany‘s watch.

The situation in Kosovo – where the Muslim Albanian majority wants full independence from Serbia – is a further possible hotspot for the coming year. Failure to reach a negotiated settlement may lead Albanian leaders to make a unilateral declaration of independence and lead to calls for the EU to take over security in the fledgling country.

A crisis over Turkey‘s bid to join the EU could also cast a shadow over the German presidency. The EU earlier last month agreed to partially freeze Ankara‘s membership negotiations due to the Turkish failure to establish transport links with EU member Cyprus.

On the more arcane issue of communication, the German EU presidency is taking a conservative approach to working languages.

Unlike recent EU presidencies, such as those of Finland and Austria, leaders of Germany do not plan to make major statements or hold press conferences in English, German officials say.

Instead, Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will conduct all business in German and rely on simultaneous translation to get their message across to a 1,000-strong mainly English-speaking press corps in Brussels.

Reporters covering the EU warn, however, that if Germany wants to be recognized as a European and global player, its top officials will have to start making public statements which can be broadcast – and understood – worldwide.