March tourism drop cannot all be blamed on Easter

Arrivals of tourists dropped by 21.9% year on year in March, partly owing to the timing of Western Easter (March 27, 2005, April 16, 2006), although the steepness of the decline suggests that it cannot all be blamed on religious feasts.

The biggest drop among the main markets was recorded among arrivals from Germany (down 43.2% year on year), while the second biggest drop was from Sweden (-41.7%), the fourth largest market.

Arrivals from Cyprus’ biggest market, the UK, were down 26.9%.

For the Easter argument to hold water, one would expect a stronger showing from Orthodox countries. Orthodox Easter was celebrated on May 1st 2005 but will be celebrated on April 23rd this year, so there should be no Easter effect in the month of March.

However, arrivals from Greece were down 9.6% year on year, marking their 7th consecutive month of decline. Arrivals from Russia were down 16.4%. This suggests that there are other reasons for the decline.

Moreover, according to Financial Mirror analysis, the only years in recent history in which the “Easter effect” has been as bad as this one–namely 2002 and 2003–were also years in which tourism arrivals fell for the year as a whole.

The little ray of Easter hope comes from markets where there are, we assume, no public holidays for Easter: arrivals from Gulf countries continue to race ahead, rising by 33.3% year on year in March, while arrivals from Israel were up 22.7%.

Wishing you a Happy (Orthodox) Easter this weekend.

Fiona Mullen