Low hopes for Cyprus breakthrough in 2006

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“Greek Cypriot PR machine is failing”

Elections in Cyprus in 2006 and in Turkey in 2007, a feeling on both sides that too many concessions have already been given, a political culture of tit-for-tat between the two sides suggest that prospects for a breakthrough on the Cyprus problem in 2006 are not good. Moreover, continuing legal cases over property will only reduce the chances of a solution.

These are some of the conclusions that one has to draw from the roundtable discussion on the subject at Intercollege – Research Center on Thursday. However, they did put forward some ideas for pushing the process forward.

The discussion was initiated by two speakers, Professor Andreas Theophanous, Director of the Research Center – Intercollege, and Mete Hatay, Project Leader at the International Peace Research Institute of Oslo.

Greek Cypriot need tangible benefits

Theophanous said that Turkey’s recent proposal — essentially to swap its implementation of the Ankara Protocol for the opening of trade and air traffic for Turkish Cypriots — amounted to Turkey trying to “exchange its obligations with further concessions from the Greek Cypriots.”

However, he added, “It would have been interesting if in the proposal we had seen talk about withdrawal of troops”.

Greek Cypriots need to see tangible benefits, he said.

Something that would provide tangible benefits to Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots would be the opening of Varosha, he argued, since some Greek Cypriots would get property back and Turkish Cypriots would benefit from the economic boom it would create.

Problem with Greek Cypriot PR

While Theophanous was careful not to criticise the government directly, he is clearly worried that Turkey has lately been winning the public relations war.

“The PR dimension of the Republic of Cyprus has not been that effective”, he said but added that there is scope for catch up.

Later, he told the Financial Mirror, “If, for example, Turkey talks about the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots when we offer so many benefits and everybody remembers what Turkey says then we have a problem.”

Theophanous would also like to see more think-tanks getting involved in dialogue with Turkish Cypriots.

“The role of the think-tanks and universities is of utmost importance in the new era,” he told the Financial Mirror.

One page summary of what GCs want

Theophanous therefore suggested that the Republic of Cyprus should write on one page the principles of what it wants. This short list does not have to refer to the Annan Plan, which Theophanous opposed, and should focus on what it wants, not what it doesn’t want.

The one page of guidelines should be widely circulated.

“This is not substitution of the UN process,” he told the Financial Mirror.

Peace-building needed at society level

Mete Hatay, who did not think there would be “any kind of breakthrough in the coming years” argued for investment in peace-building to prepare the people for a solution. This was missing in the period before the referendum, he argued.

“People were locked up in their own perceptions which has been backed up by their propaganda machines for years and believe everything that both sides or Turkey was telling them,” he said.

The opening of the checkpoints in 2003 was very important in this respect, because it allows people “to see things for themselves without the interpretation of third parties.”

“For the last 40 years we have been having different discourses and developments and different memories for different dates,” he added.

Hatay also called for common institutions that could deliver important information and “reconstruct myths which have been structured and constructed throughout the years”.

He gave an example of demographics. Hatay cited figures from the Republic of Cyprus government on birth certificate applications which seem to contradict their own claims that there are only 85,000 Turkish Cypriots in the north. This complicates reconciliation, he said.

“What happens when you have a wrong number, that 10% of people are seeking political equality? How can you explain to Greek Cypriots that 10% of the population wants a federation?”

Legal cases could destroy the solution

Whle Hatay emphasised that it was an individual’s right to pursue a legal case on property, he was very worried that legal court cases, which will eventually affect thousand of both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot refugees, would put off a solution.

“The hot issues will be solved and there is no bargain,” he said.

He also challenged Greek Cypriots to decide what they really want.

“This sort of soul-searching of Greek Cypriots has to come and end one day, and they have to decide if they want to share power and administration of the island, or share the island,” he said.

Fiona Mullen