Markets are facing a “double whammy” of energy volatility and trade tensions flaring up again, the CEO of a leading independent financial advisory has warned.
The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as oil markets surge amid escalating conflict involving Iran, while the Trump administration simultaneously launches sweeping new trade investigations targeting many of the world’s largest economies.
Brent crude spiked sharply on Thursday, briefly pushing above $100 a barrel after Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes across the Gulf intensified fears of supply disruption.
The surge came despite the International Energy Agency announcing the largest emergency release of oil reserves in history — around 400 million barrels — including roughly 172 mln from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
“Oil surging back to $100 a barrel shows that energy markets are reacting to a genuine geopolitical shock,” said Nigel Green.
“Iranian attacks on tankers, ports and infrastructure across the Gulf have raised the risk of major disruption to one of the most critical oil arteries on the planet.”
A fifth of the world’s crude oil normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, making any instability in the corridor immediately significant for global supply and pricing.
“Even partial disruption to shipping through Hormuz has enormous consequences for markets.
“Energy traders price risk immediately. Every strike on infrastructure, every tanker attack, every threat to shipping feeds directly into oil prices,” Green said.
Recent market moves highlight the scale of the anxiety. Brent crude has surged more than 30% since the conflict began, reflecting the rapidly rising risk premium attached to Middle East supply.
On Wednesday evening, the IEA agreed to release 400 mln barrels from its emergency oil reserves in the biggest-ever discharge, after the Middle East war caused prices to spike.
“Markets have watched the largest emergency oil release ever announced and still pushed prices sharply higher,” the deVere CEO continued.
“That tells you the geopolitical risk currently outweighs the stabilising effect of those reserves.”
Investors worried
At the same time, a second pressure point has emerged through trade policy.
The Trump administration has launched new investigations into 16 major trading partners as it attempts to rebuild its tariff framework after the US Supreme Court ruled earlier reciprocal tariffs unlawful.
The targeted countries include China, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, India, South Korea, Switzerland and Norway.
Green said the move signals a renewed escalation in global trade tensions.
“Washington has opened another broad front across global trade. Investigations covering major economies send a strong signal that tariff disputes are, once again, coming back to the centre of economic policy.”
The administration has imposed temporary tariffs while the investigations proceed, with officials aiming to construct a new long-term tariff structure to replace measures struck down by the court.
According to the deVere founder, the simultaneous escalation in energy risk and trade disputes creates a particularly difficult environment for markets.
“Energy volatility drives inflation pressure and increases production costs across the entire economy,” he explained.
“Trade conflicts disrupt supply chains, investment flows and international commerce. Experiencing both forces at the same time creates a far more complex risk environment.”
Equities have already reacted cautiously as investors weigh the implications for growth, inflation and corporate profitability.
“Oil prices rising quickly place immediate pressure on transportation, manufacturing and logistics costs.
“Add expanding tariff disputes into the mix and companies face a sharp increase in uncertainty about supply chains, pricing and demand.”
“Energy instability alone can unsettle markets,” Nigel Green comments. “Trade disputes alone can weaken growth expectations.
“Together they create exactly the kind of double whammy investors are confronting right now.”
