Turkey's economy looks to have proved resistant to a slowdown that blighted most of western Europe in the second quarter, helped by a move by firms to refocus on Africa and the Middle East that generated double-digit growth in exports.
A Reuters poll of commercial bank economists on Friday predicted official numbers on Monday would show growth inched up to 3.25% year-on-year from 3.2% in the first quarter.
That shows the success so far of policymakers, largely the country's central bank, in steering the economy softly back down to earth after a boom that saw it expand at an annual rate of more than 10% at the start of 2011.
Helped by relatively low debt and its 80 million domestic consumers, its prospects are far brighter than most of its European counterparts.
"In euro zone countries, governments have implemented strict fiscal measures. Their financial system is deleveraging and households need to improve their balance sheets," said Emre Tekmen, economist at bank TEB in Istanbul.
"Turkey doesn't have any of these problems. On the export front, the market diversification of Turkish exporters also is a positive factor for Turkey."
Stellar economic growth over the last decade has been the bedrock of the success of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has overseen a near tripling of per capita income since coming to power in late 2002.
But, hampered by the rise in the cost of the fuel it has to import, the economy is also still burdened by relatively high interest rates and heavily reliant on income from the cheap goods it sells abroad.
Exports rose 12.6% to $87.2 billion in the first seven months of the year despite a deepening crisis in Europe, which is Turkey's main trading partner.
Over the same period the share of exports that go to European Union countries fell to 39% from 48% in 2011, while the share in countries of Africa and the Near and Middle East rose to 37% from 27%.
"If there wasn't any market diversification, Turkish exports would be at least 10% lower than their current level. This has increased the impact of exports on growth," said Adnan Dalgakiran, board member of the Turkish Exporters Assembly.
"I expect Turkey to gradually increase exports to African and Middle Eastern countries as well to its neighbouring countries," he said.
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Turkey's economy was the fastest growing in Europe last year, surging 8.5%, largely due to strong household consumption and high investment expenditures in the private sector.
With growth slowing, however, budgetary balances are deteriorating and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek told Reuters on Thursday that it would likely miss its targets for both the budget deficit and 4% economic growth this year.
Analysts' growth estimates for the second quarter ranged from 1.9% to 3.8% for the second quarter while the median forecast for growth in 2012 stood at 3.15%.
A deeper slowdown is expected in the third quarter and there have already been signs that may prompt the central bank to begin to make outright cuts in borrowing costs.
"The bank would be more interested in what will happen in the third and fourth quarter," said Haluk Burumcekci, chief economist at EFG Istanbul. "Even if the growth rate is higher than expected, the bank will not stop to loosen its policy as the economy seems weaker in the third quarter."
The longer-term worry, underlined by Dalgakiran, is that a developing industrial sector produces needs to diversify more into more sophisticated high added-value output. That requires Turks to save more than they do now and both government and companies to invest heavily.
"Currently, Turkey is weak in this field," Dalgakiran said.
Turkey's EU-defined debt stock fell to 39.4% of its GDP in 2011 from 74% in 2002 on the back of strict fiscal discipline implemented after the 2001 crisis.
