NFP numbers disappoint

By Naeem Aslam  

Uncertainty comes to mind when it comes to the US non-farm payrolls and the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy.

The actual payrolls were 209,000, short of the forecast 225,000 and down from the 306,000 in the last month.

Friday’s NFP number and Thursday’s ADP job number have brought mixed messages for the markets as the unemployment number has ticked higher. But overall, the NFP figure has been weaker than what many had anticipated.

Markets optimistic

In terms of the equity markets, investors feel a little more optimistic as the numbers have been mixed.

But this doesn’t mean that the Fed is going to change its monetary policy stance, and this also doesn’t mean that the Fed can now adopt a more hawkish stance to tame inflation.

Gold under pressure

As for the gold price, we think that the risk remains tilted to the downside, but the long-term uptrend remains unshaken.

For now, it is more about the strength and weakness of the dollar index, which is the key factor influencing gold prices.

Bitcoin stuck in limbo

Crypto traders are stuck in this macro-related move, which is the Fed’s next policy move, while fundamentals on the adoption side are much more focused on BlackRock’s ETF.

So, it is about what the Fed is going to do, and the current retracement is based on speculation that the Fed will increase rates further this year.

 

Naeem Aslam is Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Zaye Capital Markets.