CYPRUS: Why the Turkish gas challenge escalated rather quickly

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If Anchorman legend Ron Burgundy was commenting on the Cyprus-Turkey energy rage, he would say “Boy, that escalated quickly…I mean that really got out of hand fast”.


And it has kind of gone pear-shaped out there on the East Med frontier where Cyprus was chugging along nicely by getting big international oil companies to exploit its maritime exclusive economic zone.

It was a hard slog in the early years, where most outsiders viewed Nicosia oil and gas search as a novelty project at best with nothing tangible to hold on to, whereas the noise from Ankara was no louder than the diplomatic tapping of feet.

Aphrodite did come up trumps’ early doors in the decade, but it wasn’t a huge find and eight years down the line those gas reserves are still where they found them, beneath the seabed.

While Nicosia went stoically about its business the East Med grew into the energy gift that keeps on giving – the Zohr super discovery in Egypt made everybody sit up and take notice of the vast potential in exploitable natural riches of the region.

The close proximity of the Cyprus plots to the rich gas seam flowing through Zohr’s veins revitalised interest and determination from the energy majors to sign up for the Cypriot project and drill a little deeper.

Most drills were blunted by the sheer depth and difficulty of searching for Cyprus gas until ExxonMobil hit the jackpot earlier this year, unearthing the biggest find the Republic has registered since the goldrush was but a twinkle in the government’s eye.

Turkey had clearly realised by now the region was awash with riches that bestow power and influence, it couldn’t simply allow Cyprus free access to the spoils.

No, it had to start drawing lines in the sea with total disregard for a country it does not recognise, and those artificially drawn boundaries inevitably deny Cyprus any maritime territory or sovereign waters.

Ankara did so under the pretext of protecting the rights of Turkish Cypriots, which is all well and good if it didn’t disregard that Cyprus is a sovereign nation and EU member state.

It is true that Nicosia has not done a terribly good job of making the argument that the island’s natural wealth is for all Cypriots and the energy search is done in their name.

Maybe the government could have established a Turkish Cypriot wealth fund from natural resources revenue and said this is yours once we heal this divided island.

Anyway, like most nations Turkey acts in its own self-interest with the smell of gas money is a hard one to resist.

Arguably, Turkey would not have acquired its own drillships if it wasn’t for the success story happening across troubled waters in Cyprus which has enabled the government to build strong alliances with regional neighbours Egypt and Israel.

Turkey wasn’t going to allow the East Med mutual appreciation society turn into a power club with influential friends while it was shut out of the room with its face pressed against the glass window.

It wasn’t going to wait for an invitation to the energy-rich ball, so Turkey decided to gate crash the party by dispatching two vessels to start test drilling off Cyprus.

 With Cyprus not in a position to guard the area, the Turkish ships just sailed on through, but their bravado suddenly stunned the leaders in Brussels who finally had to be seen to doing something concrete.

Targeted measures against Turkey over its illegal activities has been agreed by the EU, although Europe can’t go too far because it needs Ankara to keep a check on irregular migration, ironically, supply it with gas and support the fight on terror.

Cyprus may want a tougher EU stance but, realistically, it knows solidarity can only go so far before interest-politics takes over the helm.

Seemingly, the more diplomatic noise made about Turkey’s illegal incursions into Cyprus waters, the more ships Ankara sends in a show of defiance against the normal world order.

Whatever the outcome, a divided Cyprus will always remain vulnerable to an unpredictable Turkey that will pick and choose the rules of the game.

Looking at the bigger picture – I know this is hard to do – the confrontation over a finite resource is a short-term fix for a planet that could do without the burning of fossil fuels as our environment is suffering under climate change.

This is not the technology to save our planet which needs us to find and use alternative sources of energy for future generations to survive.

Going back to small picture stuff, what is Turkey going to do if it actually finds anything…does it have a nailed down gas extraction plan…maybe Ron Burgundy has the answer to that riddle.