CYPRUS: Erdogan is ready to plunder like the Vikings of yore

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There they were all pristine in their EU-solidarity suits standing up for Cyprus being harassed by a belligerent Turkey that smelt the gas dollars and proceeded to carve up the East Med for itself.


Cyprus, playing a dangerous game of who will blink first, herded EU leaders into a chamber in Brussels to threaten sanctions against Turkey as the fight over offshore energy reserves promises to escalate into a bar room brawl.

In a Houdini-like escape act, Cyprus managed to make the best of a drowning situation to convince Europe to take an unprecedented step in trying to pacify Turkish aggression with sanctions.

 

These targeted measures could mean assets frozen of companies and individuals or see Brussels turn off the funding taps to Ankara.

Either way, such a threat only seems to have riled Erdogan into sending another drill ship off Cyprus to start exploring early next month.

There also seems to be an assumption that Turkey is actually taking notice of what the self-assured Europeans have to say on the matter.  

Strongman Erdogan has made it abundantly clear that he is no longer interested in joining Europe’s Christian club of white privilege – not dissimilar to the Tory leadership campaign – which leaves the EU with weaker leverage.

 

If Turkey isn’t going to heed threats of sanctions from mighty Washington over purchasing Russian missiles it certainly isn’t about to quake in its boots from the sound of a European Council chorus conducted by Anastasiades.

Effectively, Turkey has invaded Cyprus territory and refuses to leave because nobody is going to remove it no matter how many nicely wrapped condemnations are packaged, and hand-delivered to the Turkish government.

Nicosia has received solid diplomatic support from the EU, US, Israel, Egypt and others but words will not alter the situation, especially if that backing hides behind the fence while you get a bloody nose.

EU leaders said they will “closely monitor developments and stand ready to respond appropriately and in full solidarity with Cyprus” and “submit options for appropriate measures without delay, including targeted measures.”

Although European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the response “will not be soft measures” they could take months to materialise and by then Turkey would have done its dirty work.

Even if the sanctions do come into effect, are they likely to persuade Erdogan to withdraw his ships and forget Cyprus has natural resources to pillage?

Cyprus doesn’t exactly have a battle-hardened navy and air force to call upon to protect its sovereignty, it needs allies and a diplomatic exit strategy from the possible full-on confrontation against an unabashed bully that already occupies a third of the island. 

Sanctions against Russia haven’t changed the state of play in the Ukraine, so why should we expect them to work against a Turkey that shows no respect for the Republic of Cyprus.

 

Certainly, the EU had to stand tall on this issue to reassure a fellow member state, as Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone is, by extension, part of the bloc’s energy resources.

 

Greece was vocal on this issue in pressing for concrete action. It feared a flimsy balsa wood response to Turkey encroaching on Cypriot territory would be like waving a red rag to a bull, encouraging Ankara to chance its arm in the Aegean where it also has an imaginary continental shelf.

 

Turkey has long warned Cyprus not to go ahead with its energy plans until after a peace settlement was found that would see Turkish Cypriots receive their fair share of the island’s wealth.

Although Turkey says it’s defending the rights of Turkish Cypriots, this is more about its own interests and regional view in treating the island like a fiefdom rather than a sovereign nation that has grown up plans of its own.

It is no coincidence that Turkey waited for Cyprus to strike it rich in hydrocarbons before it started drawing its own lines in the sea to plunder with its drill ships like Viking raids of old.

Unwittingly, Nicosia has boxed itself in a corner in the belief that being an EU member, a friend of Washington and partying with multi-national oil companies would serve as a ring of steel against an unpredictable neighbour.

Maybe the only real option left is getting back to the negotiating table and offering Turkey a piece of the energy pie if it promises to behave and not beat up the guests when invited round for Sunday lunch.

It would also be naïve to ignore that Turkey will have some serious countermeasures of its own tucked up its sleeve to ensure that Nicosia will feel its jilted wrath.

If Erdogan really wanted to play hardball, he could annex the Turkish-held north of Cyprus, which would render any peace process useless and open up the ghost town of Varosha to guarantee its original Greek Cypriot inhabitants never go back.

Body blows that would leave Cyprus on the ropes despite having EU sanctions for a gum shield.