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This was a week full of expectation when Cyprus stuck its hidden face on the world natural gas map with a huge find by ExxonMobil which suggests there are more undersea riches to be found.
Amid the razzmatazz – I’m not sure that announcing the results of an exploratory drill can ever be sexy – and the audible clinking of future dollar signs in our national consciousness, there was a sense that Cypriots could not be so lucky.
Winning at imaginary hydrocarbon bingo is one thing, how to share the money fairly is another, especially when the prize is a promise of deferred payment rather cash-in-hand so to speak.
Like anyone who has become rich overnight, they quickly learn everybody is their friend who wants a piece of the action.
Although Cyprus hasn’t begun to exploit its untapped natural gas reserves it is accumulating a portfolio that suggests it will have enough to become a regional player in the export of hydrocarbons, especially to Europe and Egypt.
There are bound to be a lot of people tempted by the money who seek to line their own pockets and who’s going to miss a few notes when Cyprus is extracting billions worth of oil and gas from its waters.
With the world-class discovery of the Glafcos well, that could generate in excess of $40 bln, ExxonMobil is going to be committed to Cyprus for a minimum of 20 years which inevitably brings Washington closer to political developments on the island.
All we need now is to invite a big Russian player to strike it rich off Cyprus and we’d have our own Cold War being played out in the East Med.
Nicosia is quite content to plot its energy future by building regional alliances, but how much longer can it avoid Turkey playing brinkmanship in disputing the legitimacy of Cyprus to exercise its sovereign rights.
Now Ankara has smelt the quantities of gas lurking beneath Cyprus seas it will inevitably up the ante and the rhetoric now there is something tangible it can lay claim to and start its own self-declared drills close to the island.
It has held its largest ever naval exercise in the region to warn Cyprus, Greece and Israel that Turkey is going nowhere until has a piece of the energy puzzle.
And while the island’s political division remains stagnant, devoid of trust with no clear roadmap, then Turkey will exploit those weaknesses to try and control the narrative in efforts to block energy cooperation with Greece, Israel and Egypt.
If there is one thing big business doesn’t like its instability and unpredictability and that’s where Nicosia has to box clever and show it is willing and able to reach out to Turkish Cypriots and find a way for an acceptable peace where energy wealth will glue that trust not unhinge it.
But there was no sign of a crack in the wall when Cypriot leaders met this week in an informal break-the-ice meeting to see how far they have yet to climb.
They are nowhere near the summit clouded in dense fog, so they have had to set up base camp on a narrow ledge that is precarious while ordering for supplies before they are able to navigate the trickiest peak.
After surveying all around them President Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci have surmised that they are unable to move forward to complete the mission, so they exchanged notes on the things they could do to prevent the exercise from being a futile one.
With the peace process buried under thick snow for the past 19 months, Cypriot leaders agreed to improve the divided Island’s mobile phone connectivity, it’s an old trick they have used before.
After their meeting, a UN statement issued afterwards made no mention of the resumption of talks or when the two might have another crack at it.
Unable to resolve their differences they needed to show a willingness to improve the climate of trust that has slowly evaporated.
Among the confidence building stuff, Anastasiades did manage to outline his view of a decentralised federal system of government post-solution – a move away from previously advocating a strong federal centre which has been bogged down in power-sharing arguments.
Similar to most issues of the Cyprus problem, it is a work in progress that can change shape according to the background music.
What we must be grateful for is that the leaders are (drum roll please) “committed to intensifying” confidence-building measures “with the objective of improving the daily lives of all Cypriots”.
That’s official, so you need to take that home with you and put it in a box labelled “believe” because sooner or later you will be able to dial a friend on either side of the ceasefire line and tell them how unhappy you are.
Not only that, the Turkish Cypriots were throwing wild parties in celebration that Anastasiades had agreed to hand over obscure 1960s archive footage of nothing in particular.
Well, at least they agreed on something, unlike the Vietnam summit where the ‘little rocket man’ and the ‘mentally deranged U.S. dotard’ had to skip lunch.
That’s what happens when leaders become famous/infamous, they acquire awesome nicknames – our politicians are blander than a North Korean chat show to make the grade just yet…but you’d be surprised what $40 bln can buy.
