Russian political party in Cyprus – A risky move?

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By Antonis Loizou F.R.I.C.S. – Antonis Loizou & Associates Ltd – Property Valuers, Property Consultants & Estate Agents

 

This is not a political article, but allow me to convey my own thoughts on the subject and the possible side effects this may have for Cyprus, the economy, the brief “success” story and the Cyprus real estate sector.


Regrettably, foreign media and governments do not see such developments (Russian party, etc) with a positive eye. It seems the Second World War is still with us, we are afraid, and a number of European countries such as Germany, the Baltic states, Poland, etc. will not look upon this with a positive eye.

The bail-in for Cyprus in 2013 is a case in hand.  EU banks in worse situation than Cyprus, were not forced to undergo a bail-in and only Cyprus has had to adopt this (under EU pressure).  The reasons? The target was the Russian money deposits and not the locals.

Let’s look how others see us.

·  –   The Bank of Cyprus, Hellenic Bank, RCB Bank, are to a large extent under Russian and other iron-curtain countries ownership.  If the Co-Op bank falls within the same investors, it will mean that practically our entire banking system is out of our control.

·  –     Investments for passports, etc. are blown out of proportion by the international press with bad publicity and we now have an EU reaction.  No similar report was made for other countries with similar schemes.

·   –    Russian investors are involved in shops, restaurants and other business with Russian flags flying high at some of them.

·    –   Orthodox churches are being built by Russians and others.

·    –   Two radio stations, newspapers, etc. are also owned by the same source.

These sorts of developments may be, for Cyprus, good and welcome, but are not looked upon by others with the same attraction as ours.  Our long standing friendship with Russia and other eastern block countries are looked upon with suspicion emanating from the Makarios era (at the time it was reported that then-President Makarios was turning this island into a new Cuba).

Having said that and with this new party in the making, this will not be acceptable by the EU and of course by the U.S.

It is expected that there will be a reaction and it would have been better for this emerging party to become more of a pressure group than otherwise, which can be affiliated with one of the existing parties, so that it will sooth the above concerns.

Because my columns usually focus on real estate, I would expect an increased pressure on the government from the EU regarding the passports scheme, whereas no other EU members have had the same treatment and this might lead to the introduction of some sort of sanctions/restrictions.

The above might happen – why not, since the bail-in was never used in other countries, the only negative press report regarding the passports referred to Cyprus, notwithstanding that Cyprus has a minute percentage of this market in relation to the EU and nowhere are other countries referred to.

If this happens, the interest for our high-end real estate projects for which Cyprus has invested a lot, will discourage Russians and others from doing businesses here and will set an example for others to “keep away”. Even Russia’s President Putin has stated that Cyprus is an example to be avoided, in an effort to lure the money of the Russians back to their own country.

Regrettably, being a small and weak country we cannot respond and we follow the sanctions that the EU imposed for Russia (much to the delight of Turkey regarding at least agricultural products) and whatever other measures will be in the future.  We must take advantage of the new business regarding the tourist industry, the hotels and real estate investment and if we were to accept that approximately 30% of the foreign buyers/investors are of Russian origin, this is a large percentage worthy to keep a close eye on this situation.

Notwithstanding the above it will be a mistake to consider in our own little island that we are okay with this and it is with a great embarrassment that we may be one of the first to raise our concerns hoping for some sort of an alternative to be found.

 

www.aloizou.com.cy

 

 

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