The US dollar is the main focus for forex traders this week with several crucial economic data releases scheduled. On Friday, the US unemployment rate will be revealed and it is predicted that the rate will drop from 7.6% to 7.5%. While this is heading in the right direction, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to trim the stimulus until he sees unemployment fall below 7%. The most significant measure of the health of the US economy, however, is the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will also be released on the same day.
Traders also eagerly awaited yesterday’s statement from Bernanke where he stated that he would maintain the bond buying programme for now. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) spent the past two days meeting and some analysts had hoped Bernanke may indicate when he may begin withdrawing the stimulus. If tomorrow’s NFP figure is lower than last month's Bernanke may decide to delay his withdrawal of the stimulus until later in the year or early in 2014.
Bernanke has been see-sawing so much in his opinion about whether to withdraw the stimulus and when this may be that the market did not move substantially in response to his announcement on Wednesday. Instead, it is the full calendar of data releases from all of the world’s major economies this week which is making for an exciting few days for traders. Traders of the most popular forex pair, EUR/USD, should pay close attention to the technical analysis and look for signals to buy or sell.
The Japanese yen strengthened earlier in the week in response to lower manufacturing figures from China. USD/JPY was trading at 100.44 on Thursday 25 July before hitting 97.62 on Monday 29 July. A small decline in yen was observed in early trading on Tuesday 20 July, going from 97.87 to 98.45 and this level has been loosely maintained since, however if other economic data from China scheduled for later in the week is also negative it is likely that the yen will strengthen once again.
The Eurozone economy is coming under the microscope this week with yesterday’s positive Eurozone unemployment announcement and the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision today. The euro has been trading in a fairly stable pattern recently, with a small drop in Monday’s trading from 1.3294 to 1.3239. The positive Eurozone employment data yesterday helped to boost EUR/USD to 1.3344, however it retraced a little to 1.3273 after the improved US employment data released later in the day generated USD strength. Most analysts do not believe ECB President Draghi will cut interest rates this month as there are signs that the Eurozone is recovering slowly.
Last Thursday 25 July, The British pound strengthened against USD jumping from 1.5263 to 1.5433 but dropped a little on Monday to 1.5335 in response to disappointing housing market data. Sterling subsequently stabilised at around 1.54 before weakening to 1.5163 on Thursday morning on the back of USD strength. GBP traders will also be watching for the Bank of England’s interest rate decision today and any indications on future bank policy from new Governor Carney.
The Australian dollar has fallen in the past few days in response to the disappointing Chinese economic data, after climbing 2.3% in the two weeks through to July 26. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet next week to decide whether to cut interest rates, with Governor Stevens indicating there is still room to cut if the economy needs a boost. Despite this, many analysts think Stevens will wait to see what happens in China before taking any further action.
The economic slowdown in China saw oil prices drop in the past week from $106 a barrel on Wednesday 24 July, to $103.85 on Monday 29 July. However, oil prices were boosted by the better-than-expected US employment data yesterday, rising to $105.62. Signs of economic growth generally boost the price of oil as this equates with increasing demands for use in manufacturing and industry.
Gold has been trading in a haphazard pattern recently; the price started strengthening on Friday 19 July and reached a high of $1,347 an ounce on Wednesday 24 July, before falling a day later to $1,308. The precious metal was trading in a stable pattern at around $1300 to $1350, before yesterday’s employment data from the US saw traders move their trades away from the safe haven precious metal and the price fell from $1338 to $1305. However, gold rebounded later in the day to $1,334 after Bernanke announced he would be maintaining the economic stimulus.
The majors – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and AUD/USD – are the ones to watch this week with economic data the most likely influence of volatility.
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