Bulgaria's ruling party candidate Rosen Plevneliev won 40% of the votes in the first round of a presidential election, according to results on Monday, suggesting he will win a run-off and cement Prime Minister Boiko Borisov's grip on power.
Support for Plevneliev's centre-right GERB party was barely changed from the 2009 parliamentary election, despite its unfinished struggle to tackle unemployment, widespread corruption and the plight of ethnic minorities in the EU's poorest member.
The country was rocked by rallies against the Roma minority and corruption during the campaign.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which monitored the election, made an overall positive assessment but said further reform was needed to address problems such as pervasive vote-buying.
"Persistent and widespread allegations of vote-buying undermined confidence in the election process, despite the authorities' efforts to combat such practises," the European security and rights watchdog said in a statement.
A win for Plevneliev would remove the possibility of legislation or appointments initiated by the government being vetoed by the largely ceremonial presidency, now occupied by Socialist Georgi Parvanov who has often criticised the cabinet.
Last year, the government urged him to recall top diplomats who had once collaborated with the secret police in the communist era — a sensitive issue throughout the former Soviet bloc — but Parvanov opposed any mass recall.
"Plevneliev is widely perceived as Borisov's man, and I wouldn't expect him to have much influence or object to anything proposed by the GERB government," said James Goundry, an analyst at consultancy IHS Europe.
Preliminary results showed Plevneliev with 40% of the vote and Socialist Ivailo Kalfin with 28.9%, meaning they will take part in a run-off on Sunday. Officials said 96% of the votes had been counted so far.
"No matter how big the difference is between us and the second placed candidate, we cannot feel calm," Plevneliev told national radio.
Plevneliev, 47, who was construction minister until entering the race for the presidency, said he expected to pick up more rightist votes from candidates eliminated in the first round.
Former EU Commissioner Meglena Kuneva, an independent who gained support from voters dissatisfied with the political establishment, was in third place with 14%. Final results are expected on Tuesday.
GERB also won mayoral votes in the capital Sofia and the Black Sea city of Burgas, the city of Dobrich and the city of Gabrovo in the first round and will contest run-offs in most other big cities.
Analysts see GERB, which has so far avoided major reform of Bulgaria's outdated healthcare and labour systems, and the Socialists as the main contenders in the 2013 parliamentary election.
The results show that the Socialists have rebounded from a crushing defeat in the 2009 election, when they polled 18%. GERB's 40% backing is about the same as two years ago.
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