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Turkey’s latest sabre-rattling has once again paid off. In order to avoid a direct conflict with Israel, paymaster Washington has been called in to get Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Benyamin Netanyahu to repair the ties that have cooled ever since the Erdogan-Shimon Peres charade at Davos two winters ago. Following that, Ankara saw an opportunity to resume its efforts to try and become the region’s new game master and jumped on the “Democracy” bandwagon, supporting any popular revolt or Arab Spring rebellion. It also aspires to become the patron of the Palestinians’ independence, but is still treading cautiously in case it gets entangled with Hamas and it backfires, ultimately labeling Turkey as harboring terrorists.
Turkey continues to threaten with hostile actions, or withdrawal from civil conflict resolution, every time it does not like something and wants to increase its stake. Small countries like Cyprus have little choice but to follow developments, while our EU partners and the U.S. simply like to keep Ankara happy, no matter what the issue at stake.
A day after the EU Commission issued a balanced reprimand calling on both Turkey and Cyprus to “show restraint” over the gas exploration row that could have escalated to a conflict, the State Department chided Ankara in a “gentle rebuff” in order to avoid upsetting Turkey should the latter change its mind and get all cuddly with Iran as well. For sure, Erdogan will rattle his sabre when he meets Barack Obama later this week and will probably tell the Global Commander to back off thorny issues such as recognition of the Armenian Genocide and Cyprus’ gas exploration plans.
This is where we want President Christofias to show his mastery. So far, his administration has stuck to the unconvincing “we are keeping a low profile” policy, as a result of which he has allowed rumours to fly around of a pending military episode with Turkey. This suggests that there is no “Turkish Desk” at the Foreign Ministry that should have been dealing with all aspects, ranging from sovereignty issues and maritime law, to strategic politics and interpretation of every Turkish move. A handful of loyal diplomats does not count as a fully-fledged Turkish Desk.
Perhaps the time has come for Christofias to do some sabre-rattling of his own. The mention, alone, of the return of the defensive S-300 missiles, would surely get people running up and down the corridors of the State Department and would raise serious concern in Ankara. But to use such a leverage in order to persuade the U.S. and others to balance their priorities with a little bit more fairness towards the Republic of Cyprus, is an option we must not be overlooked.
Or as the Turkish proverb says, “What flares up fast, extinguishes soon”.
