* Gas potential shows upside for Israel *
Cyprus seems to be gaining popularity as a potential hub for a future LNG facility that would help pump natural gas upstream from the Israeli and adjacent Cypriot offshore fields and use the island to transport the product to customers.
Two reports have cited the current geopolitical climate in the Middle East and North Africa as reinforcing the case for Israeli gas, while looking at Cyprus as an alternative solution to lengthy and politically sensitive pipelines in other countries.
Recent natural gas discoveries halfway between Cyprus and Israel at the Tamar and Leviathan fields estimates gas reserves at 25 trln cubic feet (705 bln cu.m.), enough to meet domestic demand for several decades, and enough to transform Israel into an energy exporter, the Middle East Economic Survey said on Monday.
On the other hand, a report by UBS Investment Research said the disruption in supply of Egyptian gas during February-March “underscores the importance of strong indigenous supply with potentially positive implications for Tamar’s market share and pricing.”
Egypt supplies Israel with 40% of its gas-fired power needs and 20% of its overall electricity generation needs. The balance of Israel’s natural gas demand originates at the offshore Mari-B field.
UBS said that from an export perspective, “we believe Israeli gas may be perceived favourably against current MENA exporters, as supply diversification and improved conditions create a window for new Final Investment Decisions (FIDs).”
UBS said it expects the Tamar discovery to “accommodate the growing appetite in Israel for natural gas in the coming two to three decades,” and projected that Israeli domestic demand would grow from 5 bcm (177 bcf) in 2010 to 12.8 bcm (450 bcf) in 2015 as rising electricity consumption would be compounded by a shift to natural gas.
Monetising Leviathan will likely require a more challenging export mechanism, either through a pipeline or an LNG facility that would be targeted at Europe and/or Asia via LNG, UBS said. The bank expects Leviathan to come on-stream in 2017 and that “tighter market conditions towards 2015, and the inclination of European and Asian buyers to diversify their supply base should help to secure supply agreements.”
The UBS report views a gas pipeline through Turkey (such as those planned as part of the Southern Gas Corridor) as less relevant in the current geopolitical climate. Also, a subsea pipeline to Greece would prove too costly and technically prohibitive, due to a length of more than 1,000 km, water depths of more than 2,000 metres and seismic sensitivity near Greece.
CYPRUS POSSIBILITY
An alternative would be an LNG facility that would provide the partners in Leviathan with greater flexibility in shipping to Asia where pricing is considerably higher, UBS said. It added that it believes the partners are looking closely at the possibility of establishing an LNG facility in Cyprus – given that Leviathan is located halfway between Israel and Cyprus.
“Setting up an LNG facility in Cyprus could enable the partnership to overcome a potentially cumbersome regulatory process in Israel, while benefiting from EU status when shipping into Europe,” UBS said.
“On the more cautious side, we note that Leviathan is the largest project ever to be handled by Noble Energy and its first LNG undertaking. As a result, we believe that partnership is likely to add another partner with LNG know-how.” UBS said it believes the next few years “will be critical” for the Leviathan partnership in its pursuit of long-term contracts for the project.
Noble Energy is also capitalising on its exploration license in nearby Block 12 of the Cyprus exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and has shown interest to bid for more plots in the areas south and southeast of the Cyprus coast, the MEES report added.
OIL DISCOVERY
The UBS report also noted that while there is little chance of success, an oil discovery at Leviathan could “reshuffle the cards.” It said that if oil was discovered at the Leviathan-1 well (where drilling has been temporarily suspended due to technical reasons) it would be likely that the partners would prioritise oil infrastructure over gas.
Oil would offer clear commercial advantages to a Leviathan partner, UBS said, listing them as: no need for liquefaction; lower commercial risk, as barrels would be sold on the spot market; and faster return on investment, as more revenues are recognized in the earlier years.
“Although the simultaneous drilling of oil and gas is technically feasible, given the extensive surface of Leviathan, we believe that under this scenario, the gas project could be pushed back by several years,” UBS said.
The UBS report focused on the five main Israeli companies involved in offshore exploration and production in the country’s EEZ in the Levant Basin: Delek Energy, Delek Drilling, Avner Oil, Isramco, and Ratio Oil.
The Mari-B field has been operational since 2004 and is expected to be depleted in 2013. Initial reserves were estimated at 1.2 tcf (35 bcm) with a production capacity of 3-4 bcm/year.
Tamar was discovered in 2009 and holds an estimated 8.7 tcf (246 bcm) of natural gas. It is expected to come on-stream in 2013 and investment is estimated at $4 bln. Peak production for the first phase is targeted at 1.0-1.2 bln cfd.
Leviathan was discovered in December 2010 with reserves estimated at 16 tcf (453 bcm). UBS estimated its production life would be 2017-48 with gas sold from two LNG trains, each with a capacity of 7.5 mln tons/year. The first would come on-stream in 2017, the second in 2020. Total development costs would amount to $14 bln. It forecasts that 75% of the LNG would be shipped to Europe and the remaining 25% to Asia.
