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DR ANDRESTINOS N. PAPADOPOULOS
Ambassador a.h.
The Arab uprising in northern Africa and the Arab peninsula against their rulers, coined the ‘Arab Spring’, represents a historic milestone especially in the quest for liberty and democracy. It is not unique. The French revolution aimed for liberty and equality, likewise the popular tempest which demolished the Berlin Wall and led to the fall of the Soviet empire.
In the Arab world, oppression of the masses was for reasons of power or control of energy sources, and, in the Arab peninsula, for preserving the monarchy. Today, we are witnessing the reaction to those years of oppression: a popular uprising aimed at acquiring much-coveted freedom and sovereign representation. In this respect, it should be mentioned that the role of Islam is very limited. The Islamists and Al Qaeda were taken by surprise, as the struggle for freedom and democracy was against the usurpers of power.
A crucial question is how to deal with this development particularly for the West, which has strategic and economic interests in the region. The power vacuum, the safety of the energy sources, and the Sunni-Shiite divide – both between and within countries – must all be taken into account. The power vacuum is being felt more acutely in those countries which lack organised political forces able to guarantee a smooth transition. This danger is being moderated by the role of the army, as in the case of Egypt, or aggravated, as in the case of Libya with its 140 tribes.
Energy sources are of vital importance to the world economy, since shortcomings in petrol supplies and the concomitant oil price increases could have disastrous consequences in the present economic crisis. Europe and the United States should weigh this factor very carefully. Any change to the present energy regime in the Arab world, and particularly in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, could destabilise the region and impact on economies worldwide.
Bahrain is the best example of how the dispute between Sunnis and Shiites is affecting developments in the present crisis. There, the Shiites – 70 per cent of the population – revolted against the ruling Sunnis, just 30 per cent of the population. In general, the Sunnis are pro-western in contrast to the Shiites, as confirmed by the anti-Americanism of Iran. Concerning the events in Egypt, Iran has paid lip service to the popular uprising against President Mubarak, while suppressing their own opposition which was the first to protest nearly two years ago.
On the basis of the above, Europe and the United States, as directly interested, should formulate their policies. The United States has not only economic interests, but strategic as well because of its alliance with Israel and its military bases in the region. Europe, on the other hand, has to face, inter alia, increased waves of illegal migration of Arab populations from North Africa.
Politically, Cyprus has little to fear from the present situation. Historically, relations with the Arab world have been friendly. The Arabs supported its just cause in terms of the Cyprus problem since they themselves were victims of the Ottoman Empire, which exploited them politically, economically and culturally. Yet Cyprus does have to deal effectively with the Turkish dimension of recent developments, the so-called ‘Turkish model’ of democracy. Turkey has already attempted to exploit the Arab uprising for liberty and democracy, hypocritically supporting the oppressed Arabs, even as she violates the human rights of her own citizens and those of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots.
On the basis of the developments so far it becomes obvious that the democratic movement of the Arabs is not inimical to the West. Through appropriate handling Western leaders should encourage the genuine democratisation of the Arab world, so as to achieve stability in the region.
