Ireland's new leaders have a month to persuade European partners to relax the terms of a controversial bailout or risk the euro zone struggler buckling under the strain of its debts.
Enda Kenny's centre-right Fine Gael party cruised to victory in a weekend parliamentary election dominated by anger at the country's economic meltdown and the harsh cure prescribed by European partners.
A Fine Gael-led government, probably in coalition with the centre-left Labour Party, has no time to savour its triumph or settle into power after nearly two decades in opposition.
Starting next week, the parties' pledges to renegotiate the terms of an 85-billion-euro bailout by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will be put to the test when Kenny goes to Helsinki on Friday for a summit of EU leaders who belong to the European People's Party, the European Parliament's centre-right bloc.
He has only four weeks to persuade Europe's paymaster Germany to ease the tough terms attached to the EU's 40-billion-euros-plus in loans before a comprehensive package to resolve Europe's debt crisis is agreed at a March 24-25 summit.
Ireland's new leaders believe the bailout will bankrupt an economy still in the doldrums, a view shared by many investors who continue to steer clear of Irish debt.
"The general consensus is that the current structure of the financing coupled with the position that the ECB (European Central Bank) and Europe are taking with respect to bondholders isn't sustainable from Ireland's perspective," said Michael Cummins of Dublin-based Glas Securities.
Kenny expects Germany to agree to reduce the average rate of 5.8 percent charged on the EU loans but, while that could be sold as a victory to people back home, it will not make much difference to a debt mountain of about 155 billion euros.
Goodbody Stockbrokers estimated a hefty one percentage point cut would save 675 million euros a year, representing just 5 percent of the annual social welfare bill.
In return for relaxing terms, Europe will want something from Dublin, setting the stage for a battle royal over its low rate of corporation tax, viewed as anti-competitive in higher-tax European countries.
"We are in a moment of maximum danger on that," said Hugo Brady, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.
"We are hamstrung in the language of Brussels because we are askers and in the logic of Brussels askers have to give something."
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
It is not in Europe's interests to let Ireland hang out to dry.
An Irish sovereign default would destabilise the entire currency zone and send a signal to other peripheral countries that the sort of harsh austerity measures implemented by Dublin are pointless, undermining the message the fiscally conservative Germans have been hammering home.
With this nightmare scenario in the background, Kenny is hoping Europe will make concessions beyond the interest rate.
Of greater financial significance than a cut in borrowing costs would be a green light to restructure some of the 15.4 billion euros in Irish senior bank debt not covered by a government guarantee.
Imposing losses on such bondholders would go down well with Irish voters, who believe they are being punished to protect a financial elite, but the ECB is unlikely to relent for fear of risking contagion.
Despite some hardline "burn the bondholder" rhetoric during the campaign, Dublin will not do anything without Europe's agreement given that the ECB is keeping the Irish financial system alive with 126 billion euros in emergency funding.
With German Chancellor Angela Merkel under strong domestic pressure to resist calls for Europe to buy the sovereign debt of distressed governments, Kenny is hoping for concessions elsewhere.
Specifically, he is seeking additional help for Ireland's banks, whose reckless lending sparked the bailout in the first place.
Here again, the pressure is on.
Fresh stress tests of the Irish banks will be completed by the end of March and, with mortgage arrears rising, are expected to require the state to put more capital into the lenders.
Ireland, which has already poured 46 billion euros into the banks, wants to avoid the expense of tapping a 25-billion-euro contingency fund provided for under the bailout.
Instead, Fine Gael would like Europe to ease the burden of shoring up Irish banks by taking direct stakes in the lenders or an EU-wide insurance scheme for future bank losses or long-term funding for their assets.
The next few weeks will show whether they succeed.
