Lebanese politicians, unable to resolve disputes over a tribunal set up to try the assassins of statesman Rafik al-Hariri, have once again deferred to outside powers to try to douse a slow-burning political crisis.
Lebanon has enjoyed a rare couple of years of relative peace and prosperity, but tension over the U.N.-backed court, where a draft indictment was filed on Monday, has been rising.
Last week's collapse of a unity government has stirred a whirl of regional diplomacy aimed at averting any repeat of violence that killed dozens of people in May 2008.
In an eerie echo of that showdown, black-clad men, some in caps emblazoned with the face of slain Hezbollah hero Imad Moughniyeh, appeared briefly on Beirut streets on Tuesday and nervous parents hastily retrieved their children from school.
Lebanon is split down the middle. Hariri's son Saad, who is now caretaker prime minister, and his Sunni Muslim backers are pitted against Shi'ite Hezbollah and its allies. The country's once-dominant Christians have factions on both sides.
Each camp has support from foreign countries that play out their own rivalries and accommodations in the Lebanese arena — and each accuses the other of serving foreign interests.
"Clearly Syria and Iran are on one side, Saudi Arabia and maybe the United States on the other," said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre. "Turkey and Qatar have traditionally been trying to hold the middle."
It took a Qatari-brokered deal to calm the 2008 standoff, when pro-Hezbollah gunmen briefly seized Sunni parts of Beirut.
The Turkish foreign minister and Qatari prime minister took a new mediation effort to Beirut on Tuesday, a day after talks between Turkish, Qatari and Syrian leaders in Damascus.
"As countries in the region and allies, we can't be observers to Lebanon being dragged into another political crisis," declared Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who met his Iranian counterpart in Ankara on Monday.
ISTANBUL TALKS
In a nod to regional linkages, Davutoglu said Turkey wanted to prevent the Lebanese crisis from negatively influencing talks later this week in Istanbul between six world powers and Iran over the Islamic Republic's disputed nuclear programme.
Turkey, fast emerging as an indisputable power, with links to the Europeans, Americans and even the Israelis, may play a neutral, moderating role alongside Qatar, a tiny gas-rich Gulf state trying to punch above its diplomatic weight.
Yet Lebanon's major faultlines seem unbridgeable.
Hezbollah, which fears the Hague-based tribunal will tie some of its men to the 2005 Hariri killing, wants Saad al-Hariri to repudiate the court and end all government cooperation with what it calls an Israeli project to weaken the "resistance".
Hariri has refused to disown the tribunal, set up by the U.N. Security Council with strong U.S. and French support.
Saudi Arabia, which backs Hariri, and Syria, an ally of Hezbollah, have tried since July to square this circle.
The failure of their initiative — blamed by Hezbollah on U.S. obstruction — led to the fall of the government, when 11 ministers loyal to Hezbollah and its allies pulled out.
"It's very difficult to reach an agreement at this stage, with or without regional or external cooperation," Salem said.
But outside powers could help dissuade Hezbollah and its allies from trying to form a government by themselves, excluding the pro-Hariri bulk of the Sunni community, or from turning to civil unrest or violence to get their way, he argued.
"The best we can hope for in this phase is dysfunctionality and paralysis, but without worse developments," Salem added.
On Monday Lebanon postponed parliamentary consultations to pick a prime minister to allow time for regional diplomacy.
Omar Nashabe, an editor at al-Akhbar newspaper, which is sympathetic to Hezbollah, said outside powers often created tension in Lebanon rather than calming it, alluding to what he said were U.S. policies aligned firmly with those of Israel.
"I'm always worried about instability because destabilising Lebanon is in Israel's interests," he said.
For the moment, however, he said Washington would encourage the Turks and Qataris to put pressure on the Syrians to ensure that Hariri remains as prime minister in the next government.
"But Syria and Iran have strong cards. The players here are powerful," he said referring to the Hezbollah-led camp. Behind the dispute over the tribunal, Lebanon's antagonists are deeply divided over whether the country should be the front line for armed resistance to Israel, as Hezbollah insists, or step back from the conflict and look to its economic interests.
Lebanon endured a devastating war with Israel in 2006. The border has been largely quiet since then, but this may not last.
"Israel will not tolerate the existence of resistance fighters on its northern border who are threatening its security for whatever reason," Nashabe said.
